The Hurricane Thread

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The Hurricane Thread

Brownski
This post was updated on .
Hey weather guys, what’s the word on hurricane Florence? Will it be as bad as it looks when it makes landfall? What happens next? Is it coming north or pushing inland after the Carolinas?
"You want your skis? Go get 'em!" -W. Miller
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Re: Summer Weather 2018

Harvey
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"You just need to go at that shit wide open, hang on, and own it." —Camp
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Re: Summer Weather 2018

JasonWx
today's run has it going into the NC and parking it's self there for days. no impact on us..but that can change
"Peace and Love"
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Re: Summer Weather 2018

ScottyJack
This post was updated on .
From Rebecca’s forecast:

No Really changes or anything really unexpected going on as far as Florence goes.  She seems to be reading my ideas, as she has been following what I've been saying quite closely.

Hurricane Florence is rapidly intensifying on its path toward the East Coast and is now a Category 4 with 140 mph winds. Her Central Pressure is at 939 mb, moving west northwest at 13 mph. On satellite we can see she is a well developed and defined hurricane with strong in and out flow. She is a very large hurricane a little more than 500 miles across. So she will impact a large area.

She is moving though an idea environment as she tracks toward the Carolina's.  So she will continue to intensify.  I've been saying for quite some time that Florence will be a major hurricane at landfall.  If she makes landfall as a strong Category 3 or 4 hurricane, points north of center eye would see a storm surge of 15' to 20', if she comes in as a Category 5 hurricane a storm surge of 20'-28' would be likely. Here are charts showing the estimated storm surge at landfall.  Some of this surge might even impact areas as far north as Long Island.  On top of the surge we will see huge waves. wave heights of 40-50 feet would be possible approaching the North Carolina Coast.  The Carolina's have never seen a hurricane like Florence at landfall.  The strongest hurricanes to make landfall in the Carolina's since official records began in 1851 were: Hurricane Hazel (1954), Hurricane Gracie (1959), and Hugo (1989). Florence could be coming in stronger than those three; if that happens it would make Florence the strongest hurricane to make a landfall that far north in recorded history (since 1851).  She almost certainly will make a landfall of at least a Category 4.  Landfall is looking to be Thursday.   A hurricane of 150-165 mph would be a huge disaster for the Carolina's. She will lose her steering influences, and will stall and mill around the southern Appalachians  for a few days ; this will lead to 2-4 feet of rain inland into South and North Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia under a stalled Florence would be the worst disaster to ever hit that region. She will lose her steering influences, and will sit around thinking about where she want's to go. After that she could go in one of three tracks. one would be into the Ohio Valley and over the lower Lakes, two, loop to the north and northeast trying to make it back to the Mid Atlantic Coast. 3) she could even loop south and southeast to try and make it back to the Southeast Coast.  Of the three 2 and 3 are more likely than 1.

Florence is living up to my worst case scenario Mandatory evacuation orders have been issued on the Southeast Coast. Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam  declared a state of emergency Saturday in anticipation of the impact of Hurricane Florence, Governor Roy Copper has declared a State of Emergency for the state of North Carolina. Gov. Henry McMaster in South Carolina has done the same. Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan has also declared a State of Emergency.  The Navy is sending their ships out to sea. There are already rip currents along the Southeast Coast.  Mandatory evacuation haven't been order yet for Virginia, but officials are saying they could be.  Once Florence gets close to the Carolina's conditions will go downhill fast.  Take the warnings and evacuation advice from the NHC and your local officials.

I've included a chart where I take a stab at where I think the heaviest rains will be......but this is subject to change.  I think parts of southern Pennsylvania could end up with 4-near 12 to inches of rain.........

Could the northwest Gulf see a tropical storm and of this week? Maybe...that yellow highlighted area in the western Gulf could bring Texas some tropical weather.

Isaac will most likely fall apart in the Caribbean as conditions become unfavorable.
I ride with Crazy Horse!
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Re: Summer Weather 2018

PeeTex
They are now thinking Florence will make landfall as a 3 not a 4. They may be overhyping it, but it will still be a mess.

On another front - flurries in the high peaks this AM. Last year I was hiking Algonquin about this time and there was lots of ice. Seasons are changing.
Don't ski the trees, ski the spaces between the trees.
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Re: Summer Weather 2018

Harvey
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In reply to this post by Brownski
Florence
"You just need to go at that shit wide open, hang on, and own it." —Camp
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Re: Summer Weather 2018

campgottagopee
WOW!
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Re: The Hurricane Thread

JasonWx
This post was updated on .
In reply to this post by Harvey
Harv great post

the fact that the cam is still working and flag is sill flying ,shows to me that the storm is not living up to the hype..

"Peace and Love"
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Re: The Hurricane Thread

Harvey
Administrator
I don't know how you can call it hype before it's over. What are the property damage and death toll numbers are required for "hype" to be justified?

I believe in consequences for people who have the ability to do so and don't follow instructions to evacuate. Fines, charges for rescue, massive copays for a healthcare required from injuries.
"You just need to go at that shit wide open, hang on, and own it." —Camp
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Re: The Hurricane Thread

marznc
Made it home from a trip a day early to get things in order in our yard.  Dropped off my daughter at her school near Boston and then a spent few days in Maine at Acadia Nat. Park.  While Raleigh is not going to be hit with the brunt of the storm, the current track still could mean 5-7 inches of rain in 2-3 days with winds up to 40mph for a couple days.  The problem on the coast is that the storm is moving very slowly.  Already flooding out places near Wilmington and to the north just with the outer bands of rain and wide.  Flooding causes a lot of long term damage.  Famers are going to lose a lot of crops.

Winds expected to die down pretty quickly after landfall.  Already 80,000 people without power.

Needless to say, there is a local TV station in Raleigh broadcasting non-stop about weather conditions.  The TV station in New Bern evacuated everyone an hour ago except the meteorology team.  That building is next to the river mouth.

We were home when Hurricane Fran went right over Raleigh in 1994 in the middle of the night.  Very glad that's not going to happen again.
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Re: The Hurricane Thread

marznc
In reply to this post by JasonWx
JasonWx wrote
Harv great post

the fact that the cam is still working and flag is sill flying ,shows to me that the storm is not living up to the hype..
The flag was starting to shred by 4pm this afternoon.  The owner rode out Hurricane Matthew out on the platform but is in Charlotte this time.  That says something about the winds expected.
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Re: The Hurricane Thread

Harvey
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In reply to this post by JasonWx
JasonWx wrote
the storm is not living up to the hype..
When you call 911 in several counties in North Carolina they are telling people to call back tomorrow.


"You just need to go at that shit wide open, hang on, and own it." —Camp
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Re: The Hurricane Thread

JasonWx
In reply to this post by Harvey
My definition of HYPE is to actually have Hurricane conditions.. Winds that are sustained at 74mph not gusts...I could not find  one ob that had those numbers..That includes buoy reports.. I look at from a pure meteorological point of view..

also the utilities shut power down to protect the grid..

 
"Peace and Love"
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Re: The Hurricane Thread

Harvey
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Current hype from NWS Morehead:

Flash Flood Warning
Storm Surge Warning
Hurricane Warning
Tropical Storm Warning
Flood Warning
Tornado Watch
Flash Flood Watch
Storm Surge Watch
Hurricane Local Statement
Rip Current Statement
Beach Hazards Statement
Hazardous Weather Outlook
"You just need to go at that shit wide open, hang on, and own it." —Camp
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Re: The Hurricane Thread

PeeTex
My guess is that this will be an Irene for the southern Apalachains. The mountains are going to take the brunt of this with lots of mud slides, washed out bridges and flooded rural towns. One track had it coming up our way as a rain event but that’s a ways off.
Don't ski the trees, ski the spaces between the trees.
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Re: The Hurricane Thread

marznc
In reply to this post by JasonWx
JasonWx wrote
My definition of HYPE is to actually have Hurricane conditions.. Winds that are sustained at 74mph not gusts...I could not find  one ob that had those numbers..That includes buoy reports.. I look at from a pure meteorological point of view..

also the utilities shut power down to protect the grid..
Sustained winds where?  How far out are buoys located?  Landfall is expected some time Friday morning at Category 1.

At Category 1 as of 11pm, with max wind measured at 90mph.  Florence is moving very slowly, which means the associated rain is the real problem this time.  Flooding from 10-15 inches of rain in the next 48-72 hours is what is being mentioned by the local meteorologists more than wind speed.  Also talking about storm surge of 7-11 feet.

Apparently transformers are starting to blow out in Wilmington, as of 11pm.  Population of Wilmington is about 120,000.  Winds gusting at 80mph 8-12 hours from landfall.

Duke Energy is shutting down the nuclear power plant near Wilmington.
https://www.utilitydive.com/news/duke-shuts-down-brunswick-nuclear-plant-ahead-of-hurricane-florence/532297/
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Re: The Hurricane Thread

JasonWx
My friend has a monster house right on the cape fear river in Wilmington..He is staying. He didn't give a second thought.

these are the weather buoys that are maintained by the government
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Southeast.shtml
"Peace and Love"
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Re: The Hurricane Thread

Harvey
Administrator
This post was updated on .
Was he in an evac zone? How is he doing?

They are saying two feet above flood for the Cape Fear River. How high is his house?
"You just need to go at that shit wide open, hang on, and own it." —Camp
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Re: The Hurricane Thread

JasonWx
Just got off the phone with him

Lost a couple of trees , no flooding from the river...said only thing is , he has leaks in some of his windows...

he has a full house generator and was watching tv..
"Peace and Love"
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Re: The Hurricane Thread

Harvey
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He sounds well insulated. Was he asked to evac?
"You just need to go at that shit wide open, hang on, and own it." —Camp
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