The Sandy Thread: Weather Models are predicting a big event

Perfect Storm ?

wrote

The 12z run from this morning also showed a 970mb low (most likely a Category 1 hurricane), not far from the mid-Atlantic coast. Although the storm is a bit of a slower mover, the GFS shows historical rainfall amounts of over 15 inches across portions of Long Island and Connecticut

Wut.

The question that everyone wants to know...

a) what are the odds?
b) is any of it going to fall as snow?
c) where?

No matter how pathetic, I might have to rely on this for October turns. Yes, Harv, this might be it for the 'streak'.

I had a few options since last week, but they are all been too dry or too warm.

MadPatSki wrote

No matter how pathetic, I might have to really on this for October turns. Yes, Harv, this might be it for the 'streak'.

If it is coastal and that strong I'd think it would pull enough cold air into VT to produce some snow. Or maybe the WF Toll Road will save the day?

MadPat... how do you FEEL about the possibility of the e.n.d. ?



Latest forecasts:

The trend has shifted the storm a bit further east, with some solutions out to sea, but others bringing a massive storm directly into southern New England. Details will change, but the potential still exists for a major to possibly historic storm impacting a portion of the East Coast in about a week's time.

Harvey44 wrote

If it is coastal and that strong I'd think it would pull enough cold air into VT to produce some snow. Or maybe the WF Toll Road will save the day?

Get Jason to work on it. I honesty don't know. A few days ago Matt and I were hoping for WFTR for this morning.

Harvey44 wrote

MadPat... how do you FEEL about the possibility of the e.n.d. ?

Not sure...not happy that I might have blown it. Maybe I wasn't hungry enough, especially with K opening. Life sometimes make things complicated and was hoping for the second half of October. Not sure how far I want to go.

sorry to squash this, but the latest run has this system a million miles off the coast..



 

JasonWx wrote

sorry squash this, but the latest run has this system a million miles off the coast..

Gully washer! Say it! Say Gully washer!!!

 everybody is a comedian..

but much colder weather is on tap for next week

JasonWx wrote

sorry squash this, but the latest run has this system a million miles off the coast..

Where is the tar and feathers????

This thing is still in play. I hope it goes out to sea.

yeah, the models now capture and retrograde the system, and drive the low into the gulf of maine...

Here's what my main man from Groton Weather has to say:


Let me preface this map by saying once more that there is **extreme uncertainty** here and that this map is only meant as a visualization of what my general thinking is, NOT an absolute forecast!

I know I am going out on a limb making a map this early at all...but I am becoming more convinced that Sandy will take a track towards New England. Model consistency, agreement between most models, known model biases, trends in Weather Service discussions...and gut feeling went into this map.

The main player is actually not Sandy, but an area of high pressure forecast to develop near Greenland that will 'block' the eastward progression of systems. The European model tends to have a bias to over emphasize this block, which is why I feel a Mid-Atlantic system is less likely. I feel the Bermuda track is even less likely due to a lack of models presenting that as an option and the track record of the European model (north track) with tropical systems.

Please pay attention to the dotted line, as the colors mean different things above and below the line. The other big question besides WHERE Sandy goes is what IMPACTS Sandy will have. Models have varying solutions on the strength of this storm and I tend to lean towards a slightly weaker storm instead of the monster some models are showing. It is way too early to predict impacts, even generally.

I will not be making another post on this storm until Noon Thursday, but will answer questions in the comments section here

JasonWx wrote

yeah, the models now capture and retrograde the system , and drive the low into the gulf of maine...

Again...here is my questions. From what I heard, some snow might fall West of this (WNY has been mentioned, part of PA and maybe part of SBR's Hinterland. How about high up on top of WFToll Road?

Is Harv correct into putting out that some might result out of this?

MadPatSki wrote

The question that everyone wants to know...

a) what are the odds?
b) is any of it going to fall as snow?
c) where?

My question to Jason:

Is there any scenario that delivers the snow Patrick needs, without delivering a "natural" disaster?

Harvey44 wrote

Is there any scenario that delivers the snow Patrick needs, without delivering a "natural" disaster?

From Western Pennsylvania to Gaspé; from the top of MTW to the sea level at Le Massif.

I know its a clown map for very far in time and its not reliable, but...if it's correct, I might be skiing in SBR's hinterland. There is a pretty  good small lost area there. Closed in 2000. Hunting season, no trespassing sign and gate.

Oh yeah, its really far away for a forecast (like Gord), but it could be an option. Slideable snow shown in WNY too.

Gord, where are your skis?

As of NOW this is a total rain event.. That is 6 days away...The 12z gfs showed a 950 low in the Gulf of Maine. I have never seen a non tropical low that strong in our neck of the woods...We don't need a heavy rain / high wind storm.

JasonWx wrote

As of NOW this is a total rain event..

No snow anywhere???

Maybe a little in the hills of Western PA or Western NY..



If this verifies, we are looking at a major natural disaster..

MadPatSki wrote

Gord, where are your skis?

Scrape off the storage wax and they are ready to go. Or maybe leave the storage wax on for extra protection.