The Sandy Thread: Weather Models are predicting a big event

Sick Bird Rider wrote

Scrape off the storage wax and they are ready to go. Or maybe leave the storage wax on for extra protection.

Get the snow tire on...I am....just in case.

The storm looks like it will hit the East Coast.

Because its going to be tropical I'd doubt there will be any cold air aloft so all the talk of snow seems pretty far fetched.

With the memory of Irene fresh around here it seems everyone is on edge with Sandy.

How bad is this going to be?

Albany 2pm update

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXTENDED GRIDS HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED CLOSE PREVIOUS SET...WHICH
HEAVILY USED 12Z-18Z/24 HPC MOS...WITH JUST SOME MINOR CHANGES.

OVERALL...STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVENTUAL PATH
AND EVOLUTION OF SANDY AND/OR HYBRID STORM SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK. THE
00Z/25 ECMWF REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUN WELL TO THE
W...AND IN FACT HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY FURTHER S/W...TAKING THE STORM
INTO DELAWARE AND THEN NW THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
STATES...WHILE THE 00Z/25 GFS TAKES THE STORM MUCH FURTHER
E...INITIALLY WELL OFF THE EAST COAST...BEFORE EVENTUALLY TURNING
BACK TO THE N...THEN W/SW...TRACKING TOWARD NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
FROM THE NE. MOST MEMBERS OF THE 00Z/25 GEFS TRACK THE STORM INTO
NEW ENGLAND FROM THE SE OR E MON INTO TUE.

THE BOTTOM LINE FROM LOOKING AT ALL SUITES OF GUIDANCE IS THAT SOME
ATYPICAL STORM SYSTEM IS MOST LIKELY TO IMPACT A LARGE AREA OF THE
NORTHEAST U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR
GREATEST EFFECTS TO BE MONDAY AND/OR TUESDAY...WITH LINGERING
EFFECTS POSSIBLY INTO WED OR THU.

FOR OUR REGION...IT APPEARS THAT A POTENTIALLY PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN
EVENT COULD EVOLVE DURING THE MON-WED TIME FRAME...ALTHOUGH EXACT
AMTS...AND AREAS OF MOST INTENSE RAIN REMAIN UNCERTAIN. A PERIOD OF
STRONG WINDS ALSO APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH VALLEY AREAS CERTAINLY
WILL NOT BE EXEMPT FROM A SIGNIFICANT WIND THREAT EITHER...DEPENDING
ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK/EVOLUTION OF THE STORM SYSTEM.

COLDER AIR MAY EVENTUALLY WRAP INTO THE STORM/S CIRCULATION AT SOME
POINT LATER NEXT WEEK...SO SOME SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT IN PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY NEXT WED.

BEFORE THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL INITIALLY BE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...BEFORE POTENTIALLY RETROGRADING SLIGHTLY
WESTWARD SUN AFTERNOON. RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
AND NEAR THIS BOUNDARY SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...ESP ACROSS WESTERN
AREAS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN OR SHOWERS
BECOMES LIMITED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY AS THE
BOUNDARY POSSIBLY SHIFTS WESTWARD...AND BEFORE ANY MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

The system will not be tropical..Just a real beast of Nor'easter..Totally a cold core system, the problem is that it will be a prolonged event. It could sit over NY state for days..This could really cause havoc with the power grid. Also maybe a few new slides in the ADK's

I'm not a weather guy so how can a Huricane not be a tropical system?  I can see how it would pull air from the North once it passes but how can there be cold air aloft in a tropical storm that would be needed for snow?

More slides are nice but the one thing we don't need is more flooding in the AuSable Valley

O boy...      we do not need more flooding.  peeps are still getting back from last year...

NWS ALB is already out with a hazardous weather outlook for Tuesday.

Jason of Fox 23 in Albany is call Sandy "Frankenstorm" because it's an ugly hybrid monster.

X's Perfect Storm call, may unfortunately, be accurate.

it will lose it's tropical characteristics when it is around Cape Hatteras. It will develop a warm and cold sector..

FWIW my NJ employer is already talking about plans for potential closures next week.  They are taking the storm seriously.

This just in from FIS weather central:
http://www.famousinternetskiers.com/major-coastal-storm-sandy-set-to-impact-northeast/

West Virginia. Who's in?

Never skied PA or WV before...

Given Lionel's forecast and that the leaves are on the trees and that snow removal equipment and personnel maybe be suspect or not available in normal winter storm quantities, I am a bit concerned about roads, passage, and parking. Downed trees will be a given and if this measures multiple feet, who knows if the roads will be passable or if there will be a place to park. If it stays cold, the weekend following the storm could be good for turns without the hassle of post storm clean up. I'll consider that weekend for a crazy road trip if there isn't anything closer and temps are cold enough to keep the snow from manking up.

I want to hear from MadPatSki.

That FIS post seems pretty incredible.  4 feet in WV and 2-3 in PA

I've heard 3 different TV stations talk about a "historically unprecedented" storm.  How bad is this going to be.  Post Irene how much worse can it get?

This could get ugly...

Governor Andrew M. Cuomo today directed the New York State Division of Homeland Security and Emergency Services to closely monitor the progress of Hurricane Sandy and prepare for potential storm impacts. Although the storm track is still uncertain, Hurricane Sandy has the potential to affect many parts of New York State with a variety of threats, including heavy rain, high winds, flooding, tornadoes, coastal surges, and widespread power outages.
"I have directed state agencies and New York's emergency operations personnel to begin preparations now for the potential impact of Hurricane Sandy," Governor Cuomo said. "I urge all New Yorkers to closely track the storm's path, using local radio and television or online reports. We will actively monitor the storm's progress and take any steps necessary to protect our state's residents."
The Governor cautioned New Yorkers to pay close attention to TV and radio for the latest information on the storm and especially for Emergency Alert System (EAS) messages that carry local emergency orders, such as evacuation or travel restrictions.
A storm emergency kit should include items such as non-perishable food, water, cash, filled prescriptions, a battery-powered or hand-crank radio, first aid kit, flashlights and extra batteries.
For the latest information on Hurricane Sandy, please visit www.dhses.ny.gov.
The best way to receive emergency information is to subscribe to NY-ALERT, the State’s alert and notification system. Visit www.nyalert.gov and sign up for free today.

mattchuck2 wrote

West Virginia. Who's in?

You got my email addy. :)

WNY, WPA or WV. Looking at the forecast in 24hr. Logistics and applies some South America logic on travel.

riverc0il wrote

Never skied PA or WV before...

Given Lionel's forecast and that the leaves are on the trees and that snow removal equipment and personnel maybe be suspect or not available in normal winter storm quantities, I am a bit concerned about roads, passage, and parking. Downed trees will be a given and if this measures multiple feet, who knows if the roads will be passable or if there will be a place to park. If it stays cold, the weekend following the storm could be good for turns without the hassle of post storm clean up. I'll consider that weekend for a crazy road trip if there isn't anything closer and temps are cold enough to keep the snow from manking up.

I want to hear from MadPatSki.

That is why I mentioned SA logic. Roads are a concern. Crossing the border is a concern. I know I'm going somewhere, don't know where yet.

if this map verifies bring your water skis..i'm not saying that there won't be flakes flying over the hills of WV or PA. 2-4ft is just insane..

JasonWx wrote

i'm not saying that there won't be flakes flying over the hills of WV or PA. 2-4ft is just insane..

Fight, fight, jason and lionel!  if lionel dont win, the WF crew will jump in!!!!