The Sandy Thread: Weather Models are predicting a big event

breezy in Wilton.  No rain yet.  Going to cut my finger nails now.

Chris wrote

breezy in Wilton.  No rain yet.  Going to cut my finger nails now.

Excellent. Thanks for the update.

Lat/Lon: 40.4°N 74.75°W   Elevation: 233"  Very windy, probably sustained at 30-35Kts, some branches coming down. sporadic heavy rain. Pressure has dropped from 984 at 11am to 972 at 1:55pm. Long Beach Island (NJ) was breached at the northern end about an hour ago essentially trapping anyone that stayed on the island. Lookslike the Euro track was spot on predicting where landfall will be. (right around atlantic city, cape may)

Chris

Is that an electric finger nail cutter?

Central NJ: maybe 2-3 inches of rain down, wind gusting up to 50 mph - just a guess.

Reports from co-workers indicate power outages widespread just a few miles south. Flickering on and off here.

Looks like NYC subways may flood tonight.

euro was dead on..
winds 20-25 in nyack..sun dimly visible...
most over hyped storm in history..total bull sh...

if it wasn't for the full moon this would have been a total non event...

JasonWx wrote

most over hyped storm in history..total bull sh...

if it wasn't for the full moon this would have been a total non event...

+1

At least here in the Lower Hudson Valley ... We'll see what happens later on, but not really expecting anything too significant.

Can't wait to see the return line for generators at Lowes tomorrow!!!! Should be as long as the lines were yesterday and this morning waiting to get them.

I'm going to reserve judgement on the reaction to the forecast until the storm has passed.

The most deadly hurricane is US history was the Galveston Hurricane (1900?). Because there was no warning system, no one responded in advance and 8000 died - more than 2x the world trade center.

Many said Irene was overhyped, but if you live in Prattsville NY (which essentially no longer exists) or several other places you may disagree.

IMO if you are responsible (ie in govt etc) you have to warn people and push them to respond. During Katrina thousands of people didn't take warnings seriously and it made the consequences much worse. If you were Governor Christie would you have the stones to take a more relaxed attitude about it?  What if one of your family members died trying to save the guy running after the deer in the water?  He didn't seem to be taking it to seriously.

Apparently they arrested a bunch of surfers at the NJ shore this afternoon.

You guys could be right about it. But to me the risk of under reaction is higher than the reverse.

I'm waiting until it's over to see what the results are before gauging the hype.

To clarify, I was referring to my location in the Lower Hudson Valley. No doubt parts of NJ and elsewhere are getting hammered by the ocean, but where I am, there's been a barely measurable amount of rain. The winds have been gusting here and there, but it doesn't really seem any worse than a typical winter snow storm (the wind that is).

I definitely understand the need for "an abundance of caution", but I think the MEDIA HYPE on these storms is getting completely out-of-hand. Have you seen some of the footage they're airing on TV this afternoon? Reporters standing on boardwalks, "fighting to stay on their feet in the wind", while in the background, people are walking by with no difficulty whatsoever. The media, as usual, is just trying to get people to tune in.

The real concern, to me, is the "Boy who called wolf" scenario. The build-up for this storm was unbelievable, as it was for Irene in the NYC metro area. It's not that these aren't bad and dangerous storms, it's just that the reality doesn't live up to the hype. Sooner or later, people are going to start ignoring the hype, and that's when you'll have a Galveston-like tragedy. What's worse, in the case of Irene, they hyped it so much in NYC & NJ, and there was no mention of the danger to the inland areas, which was where the real problems occurred.

As for my comment about the generator returns, I've been amused by the mad-rush to get generators. You should have seen the Lowes near my house yesterday morning and this morning as well. It was madness. Why do people wait to the last possible minute to make that decision? I've never understood that mind-set. Owning a generator means you want to be prepared. If that's the case, you should be buying the generator when you DON'T need it, so that you already have it when you DO need it.

Harvey44 wrote

I'm going to reserve judgement on the reaction to the forecast until the storm has passed.
 

+1

Getting pretty bad here---strong winds w/pelting rain

county just south of us (cayuga) issued no travel effective as of 6pm

DMC (according to FB) has lost power in Hunter

It is tough to guage a storm by what happens, or doesn't happen in a few random locations. Irene was supposed to do major damage to the coast, but the coast was spared and interior NJ,NY and VT got creamed. Sandy, so far, seems to be sparing the interior but the coast of DE and NJ are getting slammed. If you missed my previous post, LBI in NJ was breached (the ocean meets the bay) for the first time since the '62 storm and is what happened to a greater extent in Galveston in 1900. That sounds pretty devastating to me.  Looking at the current radar, it appears that Long Island Sound is going to have a pretty historic surge in a few hours also.  This ain't over yet folks.

Chris

Face4Me wrote

To clarify, I was referring to my location in the Lower Hudson Valley. No doubt parts of NJ and elsewhere are getting hammered by the ocean, but where I am, there's been a barely measurable amount of rain. The winds have been gusting here and there, but it doesn't really seem any worse than a typical winter snow storm (the wind that is).

I definitely understand the need for "an abundance of caution", but I think the MEDIA HYPE on these storms is getting completely out-of-hand. Have you seen some of the footage they're airing on TV this afternoon? Reporters standing on boardwalks, "fighting to stay on their feet in the wind", while in the background, people are walking by with no difficulty whatsoever. The media, as usual, is just trying to get people to tune in.

The real concern, to me, is the "Boy who called wolf" scenario. The build-up for this storm was unbelievable, as it was for Irene in the NYC metro area. It's not that these aren't bad and dangerous storms, it's just that the reality doesn't live up to the hype. Sooner or later, people are going to start ignoring the hype, and that's when you'll have a Galveston-like tragedy. What's worse, in the case of Irene, they hyped it so much in NYC & NJ, and there was no mention of the danger to the inland areas, which was where the real problems occurred.

As for my comment about the generator returns, I've been amused by the mad-rush to get generators. You should have seen the Lowes near my house yesterday morning and this morning as well. It was madness. Why do people wait to the last possible minute to make that decision? I've never understood that mind-set. Owning a generator means you want to be prepared. If that's the case, you should be buying the generator when you DON'T need it, so that you already have it when you DO need it.

You are off the mark on this one. Mass transit has big problems in these conditions. Shutting down mass transit forces business to be realistic and also shut down. No commuters means way less work for all the cops/EMS workers. I have just heard 825,000 people (NY, LI, NJ, CT) are without power and 375,000 people have been evacuated from flood zones.

This is not overhyped. You are lucky to be out of the target zone.

Harvey44 wrote

Many said Irene was overhyped, but if you live in Prattsville NY (which essentially no longer exists) or several other places you may disagree.

Prattsville already got 1.5" from the storm. Guessing that all points North of Albany will get less than 1".

I've never been in a storm with such variable wind.  It goes to near zero and back up very high   I think we are getting gusts near 70.  Hard to believe but the windows are rattling so hard i think they might break. That didn't happen here during Irene.

Check out our twitter feed on the connect page.  I just retweeted a comparison of  Irene and Sandy that was posted by Mashable.

Also apparently there is a bit of a pissing match going on between Gov Christie and the Mayor of Atlantic City.  Gov called for mandatory evac and mayor told people to stay. First floors are flooded and now mayor wants state help. Gov is not pleased.

(via mobile)

Lost power bout 2 hrs ago. Winds have to b using over 50 . Generator and transfer switch I put in after Irene work great. Thank God I didn't return it! Lol. Bar press @ 957mb. Unreal nyc record low was 963. On inland too around Princeton

Accuweather is reporting 3.2 million without power in 16 states.

Reports from northern NJ indicate that manhattan is dark but occassionally lit up by the green glow of exploding transformers.

Catskills have extensive outages in Delaware and Ulster.

Any reports from the Adk?

I have never seen wind like this. Radio is reporting transformers blowing all over the area. Shutting generator down in an hour to save gas. Stay safe everyone.

CS

Just lost power here...120 miles north of Lake Ontario.. The wind is gusting with incredible force... I can't imagine what everyone down there is going through right now..
Fired up the generator, and we're good to go ... No where.
At least the temp is pretty warm..  

Stay safe everyone.

TD

Not much happening in Brant Lake. Windy but not like Irene, rain since 5:30 not really heavy. Hope this is all we get.Good Luck to all in the thick of this storm.
Ed

Telemark Dave wrote

Just lost power here...120 miles north of Lake Ontario.. The wind is gusting with incredible force... I can't imagine what everyone down there is going through right now..
Fired up the generator, and we're good to go ... No where.
At least the temp is pretty warm..  

Stay safe everyone.

TD

Hmmm. Still powered up a few miles north at SBRHQ. What, you not paying your taxes down there? We do have two full bathtubs just in in case.

Report from near Whiteface at 1400 feet elevation

Just went out to walk the dog in a short sleeve shirt.  Its high 50's no rain and breezy.  Wind is 15-20 and seems to be swirling.  Some bigger gusts but nothing crazy.  No reason for Essex County to declare a state of emergency like they did.