Winter 2015 - 16 Long Range Forecasts

It's all one big sine curve..this year every thing shift a bit to the west..
That said, there are hints of a more typical el nino pattern setting up..storms enter Central and Southern cali..Right now the storms are coming out of the Gulf of Alaska..

With the new year comes a new pattern finally. Though not an overwhelmingly cold pattern,  the playing field will be leveled if not tilted somewhat in our favor. Our biggest asset will be the development of a large ridge in the jet stream across western North America which will boost the PNA index well into positive territory. This will be the mechanism which should essentially keep temperatures below the freezing mark for an extended period of time after the new year. Without the overwhelming presence of the polar jet or a polar vortex, activity in the southern branch of the jet stream should also persist. This should keep the door very open for a big east coast storm and I expect at least one between the first and 10th of January 2016.

http://madriverglenweather.blogspot.com/

Finally some good news!! Thanks SJ and very Merry Christmas to you

http://www.ilsnow.com/2015/12/22/winds-of-change/

The last 2 runs were less then inspiring..Just Meh..No blow torch but then again no real deep cold air..

peace and love...

Models are also predicting rising pressure/geopotential heights across western North America, in part in response to some initial perturbing of the polar vortex.  This will likely result in deepening troughing across eastern North America and a cooling trend in temperatures for the Eastern United States.

The atmosphere is currently experiencing a pulse of energy transfer from the troposphere to the stratosphere that will last the remainder of the week.  The models are predicting a second pulse during the first week of January and we continue to anticipate even further energy transfer.  This will begin to perturb or disturb the polar vortex starting this week, which will likely peak sometime in January.

High snow cover and low sea ice this past fall favored a weakening of the polar vortex preferentially in January.  The latest weather model forecasts increase our confidence in a weakening or perturbed polar vortex in January (the GFS more so than the ECMWF and this needs to be closely monitored). Following the polar vortex weakening the negative phase of the AO, cold temperatures and potentially an increase in snowstorms is favored across the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes including the Eastern United States, Europe and East Asia.

Send me over a mug of that optimism you are drinking

SJ -- when did you start pretending to be a weatherman?

They used to call this doublespeak or PR.

TO THE BANK!

And then there is this... a lake cutter that drops some snow?

Keep bringing some hope people, we need it!  Alas, even the arrival of the BD Factor Mx last night can't stem the growing tide of "winter" melancholy that washes over me, donning my lightweight rain gear amidst the building cacophony of the spring peepers, as I head out the door this morning.....

Inspired by a movie that's currently breaking a few records I have to wonder.....is SJ Luke or Yoda in our tale of Ski Wars IV...A New Hope? The weather Force Awakens, and strong with this one it is.

....end of geek post....

A little more normalish.

Harvey wrote

  Play it again, Harv!!!