Post 2015 - 16 Winter Longterm Forecasts here. Say anything beyond the 5(?) day.
I know Jason and others don't buy longterm weather trend forecasting based on ocean temps. I do give them some weight. Feel free to ignore or flame or join in.
If you look at NOAA
you'll see long range temp maps that look like the one below, stretching as far as the eye can see, throughout next year:
Certainly looks warm into December at least.
Anyway Darrin is coming out with a forecast tomorrow that includes, in his view, some positive news (for the East) in three of five factors:
• Growth of Siberian snowpack (good)
• Warm water in Northern Pacific can create an Alaskan ridge forcing cold air east (good)
• El Nino is very strong but starting to break down, past it's peak (not really good but improving)
• Drought over west (devastation aside, good for east coast winter lovers)
• Moist central US (bad, sometimes is correlated with lake runners)
His quote: "I can't really say what kind of winter to expect for sure until we see what happens for the remainder of the fall, but I believe we have a puncher's chance for a good winter."
I'll post a link to Darrin's ilsnow forecast tomorrow, or go for it if you see it first.
"You just need to go at that shit wide open, hang on, and own it." —Camp