Winter 2015 - 16 Long Range Forecasts

Post 2015 - 16 Winter Longterm Forecasts here. Say anything beyond the 5(?) day.

I know Jason and others don't buy longterm weather trend forecasting based on ocean temps. I do give them some weight.  Feel free to ignore or flame or join in.

If you look at NOAA you'll see long range temp maps that look like the one below, stretching as far as the eye can see, throughout next year:



Certainly looks warm into December at least.

Anyway Darrin is coming out with a forecast tomorrow that includes, in his view, some positive news (for the East) in three of five factors:

• Growth of Siberian snowpack (good)
• Warm water in Northern Pacific can create an Alaskan ridge forcing cold air east (good)
• El Nino is very strong but starting to break down, past it's peak (not really good but improving)
• Drought over west (devastation aside, good for east coast winter lovers)
• Moist central US (bad, sometimes is correlated with lake runners)

His quote: "I can't really say what kind of winter to expect for sure until we see what happens for the remainder of the fall, but I believe we have a puncher's chance for a good winter."

I'll post a link to Darrin's ilsnow forecast tomorrow, or go for it if you see it first.
 

Darrin's look is out:

http://www.ilsnow.com/2015/10/07/winter-2015-16-outlook/

Some optimism, and also mention of the dreaded "zonal flow"

http://www.ilsnow.com/2015/10/18/siberian-snow/

Net net:

"I believe that NOAA’s official outlook for a mild winter for the eastern United States could end up being horrifically incorrect, which would be great for us snowmobilers."

Fairly recent from Open Snow:

That's probability of above avg..It doesn't say anything about bellow avg...

If I had the time and money, I would still book a week in the PNW this winter.

JasonWx wrote

That's probability of above avg..It doesn't say anything about bellow avg...

If I had the time and money, I would still book a week in the PNW this winter.

I hope you're right.  When you're ready to come out, hit me up.  If you want to checkout Mission Ridge, you're welcome to stay at my place.  

From Finger Lakes Weather

Could be better than avg year for us here in CNY

http://flxweather.com/2015-2016-finger-lakes-winter-forecast/
 

This is the most optimistic interpretation of El Nino (for the Northeast) I've seen:

From OpenSnow.com





EDIT: OOPS nepa! Doh.

looks like the PNW is going to get rocked..

Taos!!!

JasonWx wrote

looks like the PNW is going to get rocked..

I'm putting more money on Iowa this year.... it's kind of an under the radar play, but I think there will be some Epic days at Sundown and Mount Crescent this year.  

i'm talking about in the next 72hrs
 

JasonWx wrote

i'm talking about in the next 72hrs

Yup... Things have changed considerably over the past 2 weeks. Early next week, above 6k looks promising also. It's been cold and wet in my neck of the woods. Snowmaking at Mission will probably start within the next few days. Conditions look like they are getting better around the Volcanoes also

Long range... I'm still pessimistic. Feels like the climate has already changed over here.

Joe Cioffi:

He basically said , an avg winter..which would be great...

His description of average is not from a skiers perspective IMO.  Maybe normal.

Darrin's latest:

"Why I think winter is not a lost cause, despite El Niño"

http://www.ilsnow.com/2015/11/05/winter-outlook/

keep the mtn bikes tuned....