Winter Weather 2017-2018

The models are in disagreement..

NAM is a big zero...the GFS  a little more...If the GFS verifies a lot of wind light to moderate snow..

edit: the new 18z NAM flip flopped..If right then a major event for the cats and I eat 1000k worth of a ski trip..

0z NAM destroys the cats and dacks, models have no idea

Destroys is bad or good?

the NAM is nuts with it's qpf...gfs is probably closer to reality..

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2018022806/namconus_asnow_neus_28.png

10/1 liquid ratio seems... Optimistic for this storm.

Not trying to be a wet blanket... But I think this is going to be a wet blanket.

It will be all about elevation..There isn't any low level cold air or high pressure to the north..Also when the storm departs , it doesn't get cold..

As far as I know Jason most ski resorts have elevation ;)

NorEaster27 wrote

As far as I know Jason most ski resorts have elevation ;)

bulls eye

Harvey, potential for much much more (or less) very hard forecast but I like the trends...will know more this afternoon

Snow of hands......who’s gonna be surprised when this one shits the bed?

Nobody??

Didn’t think so!

Should I skip work Friday and go to the Cats?

tale of two models..12z NAM is very verbose,12z GFS much weaker and further off the coast..
which one is right? million dollar question

ADmiKe wrote

Should I skip work Friday and go to the Cats?

If you use the GFS..it will be raining most of thurs/thurs night in the cats, then changing to a wet wind driven snow..
NAM is similar but with more qpf

Are you thinking a coin toss at this point?

When do you think you guys will be able to nail this thing down.

After years of chasing storms like this and making bad judgement calls, it seems like this will wind up being a few inches of heavy wet snow for the cats.  No science invoked in that guess. Just every time the rain/snow line is a major factor for lower NY, we always get way less than predicted.  Add in the fact we are worried about the storm going off the coast I do not have my hopes up. Will be skiing saturday regardless though so lets hope for the best.  

Yeh my issue is Friday is only opportunity for this weekend...

JTG4eva! wrote

Snow of hands......who’s gonna be surprised when this one shuts the bed?

Nobody??

Didn’t think so!

The pessimist is never disappointed.