Winter Weather 2018 - 2019

campgottagopee wrote

Holy wind
Would blow a dog off a chain today.....wow

now that's funny!!!

Crazy windy up north too. Amazingly, the power is on.

Here's a good article on the over-hyping of winter weather forecasts:

https://www.outsideonline.com/2390700/how-weather-forecasts-hurt-skiing

Sick Bird Rider wrote

Here's a good article on the over-hyping of winter weather forecasts:

https://www.outsideonline.com/2390700/how-weather-forecasts-hurt-skiing

I was just coming here to post that myself. What do our weather gurus here think? It definitely rings true to me but then again I guess people do freeze to death while stranded on the side of the road from time to time so....

I don't pay attention to the windchill..basically a meaningless number..great for the media..

The Weather Channel is really to blame for the weather hype..They over hype everything..Naming winter storms makes me fucking crazy..

JasonWx wrote

I don't pay attention to the windchill..basically a meaningless number..great for the media..

The Weather Channel is really to blame for the weather hype..They over hype everything..Naming winter storms makes me fucking crazy..

I agree. They always want to make it seem colder than it is in the winter and hotter than it is in the summer.
I always want to ask them what the wind chill is on a breezy day in July and what the heat index is in on a sunny day January.

Saw some talk about a storm this upcoming weekend.  Looks borderline as has been the theme recently.  Would be nice to score something significant to start off March.

NWS ALY Discussion

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Friday through Sunday, the GFS and GFS-FV3 latch onto the Pacific system and attempt to phase this feature with the digging polar vortex with a strengthening storm across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes into the first weekend of March.  The ECMWF is a bit more progressive with a reduce impact of QPF across the region.  

Due to low confidence forecast, we will keep PoPs in the 30-50% categories with the highest values set for Saturday with some form of a frontal passage.  Regardless of QPF, seems likely unseasonably chilly temperatures are expected this weekend as H850 temperatures and ensemble means point toward values close to -20C.  Some lake effect snow will be probable into portions of the Dacks and western Mohawk Valley.

Fingers crossed, but not optimistic.  Probably a mix, as freezing levels look to spike Fri night into Sat as high as 6k.  Even if they don’t, not looking like a lot of QPF.  Even if there is, whatever snow falls will be blown around by very high winds all weekend.

But none of the models seem to be in agreement, so we got that going for us....????

We’ll be in Placid this weekend nonetheless.

GFS has made a significant move to the south with it's low..to early to jump on this , but it's a major change..

JTG4eva! wrote

We’ll be in Placid this weekend nonetheless.

same here as of right now.

Unless the conditions suck Saturday I’ll be skiing solo.  Let me know if you want to take a few runs.

JTG4eva! wrote

Unless the conditions suck Saturday I’ll be skiing solo.  Let me know if you want to take a few runs.

Still unsure how my wknd gonna pan out (wife coming vs just guys) but I'm sure i'll see ya at the mtn.  i'll let you know

GFS keeps flip floping for this weekend..you guess is as good as mine...

This years mantra is head west!!

from NWS

WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PST THURSDAY ABOVE 4500 FEET...

WHAT...Heavy snow. Travel will be very difficult to impossible. Road closures likely. Damage to trees and power lines is possible. Above 4500 feet, total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 feet, with localized amounts over 10 feet, are expected.

WHERE...Western Plumas County/Lassen Park and West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada including Interstate 80 over Donner Pass and Highway 50 over Echo Summit.

WHEN...Until 6 AM Thursday.

Taking this advice and booked 5 days in Aspen for mid-March. Always wanted to check it out, wallet be dammed.

I just hope the skiing is what drives all the women to flock there like the Salmon of Capistrano....

Kleetus wrote

Taking this advice and booked 5 days in Aspen for mid-March. Always wanted to check it out, wallet be dammed.

I just hope the skiing is what drives all the women to flock there like the Salmon of Capistrano....

I had a good time out there...check out my TR:

https://forum.nyskiblog.com/Aspen-Snowmass-Arapahoe-Basin-Colorado-FEB-2017-td4102538.html

ADmiKe wrote

Kleetus wrote

Taking this advice and booked 5 days in Aspen for mid-March. Always wanted to check it out, wallet be dammed.

I just hope the skiing is what drives all the women to flock there like the Salmon of Capistrano....

I had a good time out there...check out my TR:

https://forum.nyskiblog.com/Aspen-Snowmass-Arapahoe-Basin-Colorado-FEB-2017-td4102538.html

Thanks for the tip and report! Looking forward to the trip and will report back on how it goes after.

Enjoy Kleetus!

    Just skied in Aspen for the first time in over 30 years....if you like steep challenging runs,trees,and amazing hike to terrain go to Aspen Highlands! Save Snowmass for the day your tired or have to ski with some intermediate level skiers. Highlands Bowl is hike to...but when I was there they had a snowcat that would take you about a third of the way up....it would be a nice skin up to the top.

NWS ALY

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Guidance continues to suggest potential for a coastal low to develop and track along the East Coast late Sunday through Monday morning.

It's a coastal , but as of now nothing to be excited about..relatively  weak and progressive