Coronavirus

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PeeTex PeeTex
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Re: Coronavirus

Don't ski the trees, ski the spaces between the trees.
Brownski Brownski
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Re: Coronavirus

In reply to this post by campgottagopee
campgottagopee wrote
Someone has stolen all the sanitizer from our local hospital, as well as, they are running low on certain protective supplies.

This is going to get real crazy.
Sucking favages
"You want your skis? Go get 'em!" -W. Miller
Brownski Brownski
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Re: Coronavirus

On the bright side, traffic has been very manageable the last couple days
"You want your skis? Go get 'em!" -W. Miller
billyymc billyymc
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Re: Coronavirus

In reply to this post by Harvey
Harvey wrote
Seen that. Basically everyone is going to get it. Or the number is fixed, it's just the timing.

Self preservation, run right out now and start kissing strangers.
Harv - I don’t think that graphic says we are all going to get this. If that were true, even 1% mortality of the entire US population would be 3 million people. And the current mortality rate is projected over 3%!

What I believe that graphic represents is an estimate of the rate of transmission assuming that efforts are taken to contain the spread. I believe the article it came from (or a similar one I read with a similar graphic) projected infections of perhaps 1% of the US population by mid to late May. That’s 3.3 million people. Assuming a mortality rate of 2% would be 66,000 deaths.

But we’ve been doing very little to stem the spread. Our leadership has screwed the pooch.
Harvey Harvey
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Re: Coronavirus

Containment won't reduce the number?
"You just need to go at that shit wide open, hang on, and own it." —Camp
billyymc billyymc
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Re: Coronavirus

Harvey wrote
Containment won't reduce the number?
I’ll see if I can go back and find the source I read. I believe this projection was based on the current level of containment efforts.
marznc marznc
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Re: Coronavirus

In reply to this post by billyymc
billyymc wrote
Harv - I don’t think that graphic says we are all going to get this. If that were true, even 1% mortality of the entire US population would be 3 million people. And the current mortality rate is projected over 3%!

What I believe that graphic represents is an estimate of the rate of transmission assuming that efforts are taken to contain the spread. I believe the article it came from (or a similar one I read with a similar graphic) projected infections of perhaps 1% of the US population by mid to late May. That’s 3.3 million people. Assuming a mortality rate of 2% would be 66,000 deaths.

But we’ve been doing very little to stem the spread. Our leadership has screwed the pooch.
The true "case fatality rate" is still pretty unknown.  So far, most deaths have been of people over 60 with previous health issues.  The range seems to be from 1% to 5%, depending on geographic location, age, and other factors.  But what's clear is that when there are too many serious cases at the same time, as has happened in Italy, then the health care system gets overwhelmed.  One hospital had 300 serious cases a few days ago.  Meaning people who needed ICU level care.  Know any hospitals with that many ICU beds?  Admissions were running 10-15 per day.  People with minor symptoms from COVID-19 were asked to stay home.  People with other serious health problems . . . aren't getting the usual care.

The Biogen meeting of about 175 people in Boston resulted in multiple cases in more than one state.  One man went from Boston to NC and then drove home to IN, where he tested positive after having symptoms.  Think about how many people he may have infected.

The horizontal line on Flatten the Curve represents the ability of a health care system to deal with patients during a short period of time.  With a relatively long incubation period, up to 5 days with no symptoms, a relatively healthy carrier who has an 80% chance of only minor symptoms going around could infect a fair number of more at-risk people.  15% are expected to have moderate symptoms.  It's the 5% who end up with severe symptoms (not enough oxygen due to pneumonia) who are likely to die if they don't get full ICU care quickly.  Assuming they don't die quickly, they need that level of care for 2-4 weeks.

https://www.flattenthecurve.com
i
EDIT: FlattenTheCurve info provided by someone with a Masters in Public Health who is an Asst. Prof. at Oregon State School of Public Health.
marznc marznc
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Re: Coronavirus

In reply to this post by Harvey
Harvey wrote
Containment won't reduce the number?
Several areas are well past "containment."  Estimate is that COVID-19 has been in WA and CA for weeks.  Sacramento has moved to "mitigation" because they can't have so many exposed healthcare workers not working because they have "close contact" and get asked to self-isolate.  Could be thousands of carriers as of early March based on initial undetected cases from January or February.

March 8, 2020 (being updated), NY Times (may have paywall)
U.S. Health Experts Say Strictor Measures Are Required to Limit Coronavirus’s Spread
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/08/health/coronavirus-spread-united-states.html
wonderpony wonderpony
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Re: Coronavirus

In reply to this post by billyymc
i can't even think anymore.  Cornell has been insane.  I want to go crawl in a corner and cry.  I lost my brain cells around 11:30 this morning.  I think I can handle the cleaning the litterbox.  Maybe.

However, this was a great article.  Thanks, SBR.

I don't normally follow health stuff.  I think the flu vaccine is bullshit, although I get one every year because it's free at work, and it makes my parents happy  This is serious.  I am even wondering whether I will ski this weekend.

WP
campgottagopee campgottagopee
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Re: Coronavirus

I'm skiing.

The hype is crazy.

Fuck it, I could get hit by a bus in 3 weeks too.
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