Fall Weather 2016

JasonWx wrote

I think the above map might happen...I said it before..It's bad JuJu...

wouldn't be surprised if the region is flirting with 60's + next week tho..

Logged in to ask your opinion on this.  It's always exciting and I think we can all agree that Oct snow is bad juju... what about LATE October snow, does this count?  Rebecca says that we're in for a very wintery late Nov-Dec- your thoughts?

"It's going to be cold the next couple of days.

The storm that brought the cold and wind is now sitting in Eastern Canada. The location is allowing cold Canadian air to spill into the northeast. The NAO is negative, so we have blocking leading to cold air displacement. We could see some snow flurries tonight and tomorrow. We should see the winds start to decrease tomorrow. But then we will see another system roll through, brings rain and snow back into the region for Wednesday and Thursday.

The blocking in Northeast Canada, is going to force the Wednesday Thursday storm to move over Pennsylvania and then into the Mid Atlantic. With the cold air in place higher elevational snow will again be possible Wednesday night and Thursday. Unlike the weekend storm, this time around there will be a better chance for snowflakes and sleet in the Valleys of Northern Pennsylvania, Northern New Jersey, New York State and New England. The Catskills, Adirondacks, Tug Hill, Berkshires, Greens, and Whites should see some accumulations, once again.

We will see a warm up for the weekend. The warmth looks to hang on into the first week of November. Then as we get into the end of the 2nd week of November, we should see the winter pattern gates open. Allowing for a big change by Thanksgiving, with things looking very winter like for the Month of December.

Here is a look at the GFS model from Tropical Tidbits. You can see the 5400mb line is all the way down into Maryland and Delaware. That is farther south than it should be for this time in October.

The model (and others) do show snow and cold for the next four to five days. We see warmth build back in behind the Wed/Thur storm, then another little storm cools things down, before we see a nice warm up for the first week of November. "

I can say with 100% certainty that nobody knows what late Nov/Dec will bring...
Long range after 10 days is a pure guessing game....  not saying she won't be right, but it's pure speculation

Watching how the models handled Hurricane Matthew leaves me with no confidence  past 84hrs...

Yeah Jason only buys the long range if it's doom and gloom!

6-10 day forecast looks good for snowmaking. 10-14 day forecast looks rough. Question marks after that.

The mountains that open early will be able to get some good work in over the next few days. Killington and Sunday River will be laying it down hard (Nice to see Killington blowing on Superstar for the World Cup AND the usual North Ridge triple stuff).

I'd suspect that the other mountains will wait for that 10-14 day warm spell to pass before they start blasting their early season terrain in mid-November (shooting for the usual post-Thanksgiving opening).

Agree with Jason that nobody knows what late November/early December will bring. I'd love to have a December like we did in...

(At this point in my post, I paused to search the forums for the last December we had with tree skiing, because I distinctly remember one, but then I got caught up reading most of the 2012-2013 Gore Conditions thread. Good times!)

Whiteface started snowmaking today.  Not sure if they're blowing to open or if it's just a test.  As I've said earlier, I'm hoping for an 11/19 opening so I can ski before Thanksgiving.  I'll be downstate that weekend and my only hope to ski is Sunday on my say back up north.

Should there be a cold snap after the 10-14 warm spell, I think Whiteface could get snowmaking back up and open by that time.

The WF website says Nov. 18 is their target to open.

mattchuck2 wrote

(At this point in my post, I paused to search the forums for the last December we had with tree skiing, because I distinctly remember one, but then I got caught up reading most of the 2012-2013 Gore Conditions thread. Good times!)

Tree skiing 2 years ago at Gore started 12/11/14, one day after an ice storm shut down all lifts in the morning.

JTG4eva! wrote

The WF website says Nov. 18 is their target to open.

That's cool.  Let's see if they make it.

Looks like another good snow on Thursday night. I think I can get over there on Friday. With what was put down on Sunday the toll road should be fun

So nice and cold tonight.

Harvey wrote

So nice and cold tonight.

Not exactly in NY, but Jiminy Peak right on the border is testing their snow guns tonight and tomorrow night.  Did a little hike up to the top where the electric power windmill is located right next to a snowmaking pond.  The water was on as a pre-test for tonight.  A few snowflakes too.

I hiked Greylock last week with a friend from the Greylock ski club. The Thunderbolt is in great shape. Maybe we will have enough snow this year

I've got a group of friends that want to hit up the Thunderbolt this year, so hopefully!

The long range AccuWeather forecast doesn't look good for WF opening on their projected day (11/18).  Hopefully that changes in my favor.  If they don't open before Thanksgiving, I won't be able to ski there till December.  The dorms at Clarkson close Thanksgiving Weekend and I cannot stay on campus.  My only hope to ski that weekend is if I stop by Gore on my way back up on Sunday.

Best weather in the townships today. 18, flurries. Leaves in the valley. Powder up high. I could do this all season....

snoloco wrote

The long range AccuWeather forecast doesn't look good for WF opening on their projected day (11/18).  Hopefully that changes in our favor.

FIFY

I think we're off to a pretty good start. The nature signs don't look so good but the weather seems to be changing nicely

2" of snow this AM = 1st moron off the road

campgottagopee wrote

2" of snow this AM = 1st moron off the road

First person to find out how shitty their tires are

WHOA!!!

First signs of true winter is when Pro2860 starts to post here --- game on