NYSkiBlog Forum Archive › Weather Archive

Jan 19 2019 Possibilities

Classic

List

Threaded

158 messages Options

12345678

Harvey

Re: Jan 19 Possibilities

Administrator

Send it!

"You just need to go at that shit wide open, hang on, and own it." —Camp

Jon951

Re: Jan 19 Possibilities

In reply to this post by JTG4eva!

JTG4eva! wrote

I think the Cats are going to be alright. The GFS is the outlier in terms warm air aloft, but even that only has a wedge getting as far north as the Twin Tiers. Even if things shift a little I don’t think the Cats would be looking at significant icing. A bulk of the precip would come after things change back to snow anyway.

Opensnow for Platty 18-30”. Magic 22-33”. The Cats and Southern Vermont in the current bullseye zone (well, the bullseye zone that matters, Camp! Opensnow Greek forecast is 13-24”)

The QPF gradient still seems to be the biggest “risk” as you move into the Dacks and North in VT. Opensnow forecast for Gore-Sugarbush 16-24”. Forecast for WF-Stowe 12-22”. You can see the snowfall amounts decrease as you move north, due to lower QPF (somewhat offset by ratio).

We’ll know more in 12 and 24! A floor of a foot with the potential for two or more....I’ll take that.

Mountain Forecast is usually on the high side but sometimes accurate, and the’ve got 30”+ for everyone Cats and north. You get 30 inches! You get 30 inches! Well, except for Bearpen (Cats), where the have some ncp Sat night, followed by 15” of snow Sun, and 22” overall.

Gonna stick my head out the window post storm and take a look. Gonna save crystal ball for something else! "Monday morning forecast" for this one. Seems like lot's in flux for this storm too see who gets what where. Always concerned about the wind screwing things up in terms of lift function pre, during, and post storm. My son sat on his ass last Thursday and Friday at WF due to the winds...not the ones coming out of his anus, that's another story...lmao.

"Feets fail me not"

2000yearoldskier

Re: Jan 19 Possibilities

In reply to this post by Harvey

Those look like nice summer rubber.
What are you going to do in two feet? I'm in the summit house now, while the first snow in a week is falling with a freshening NW wind.
Seems like the entire US is storming.Have fun folks.

campgottagopee

Re: Jan 19 Possibilities

In reply to this post by Harvey

Harvey wrote

Send it!

Harvey

Re: Jan 19 Possibilities

Administrator

In reply to this post by 2000yearoldskier

2000yearoldskier wrote

Those look like nice summer rubber.
What are you going to do in two feet? I'm in the summit house now, while the first snow in a week is falling with a freshening NW wind.
Seems like the entire US is storming. Have fun folks.

Thanks 2000.

Now, when new, those tires will help me maintain speed on an interstate that hasn't been fully plowed. I have no illusions, and will not be driving in two feet. Even with full on winter set up, my car can't handle a foot of snow.

One thing I can say is you should see the tires I am taking off.

"You just need to go at that shit wide open, hang on, and own it." —Camp

endoftheline

Re: Jan 19 Possibilities

Winter driving in the Adirondacks with "All Season" tires is the worst of both worlds.

tjf1967

Re: Jan 19 Possibilities

Tell that to the guys I see hitch hiking between tupper and SL

Harvey

Re: Jan 19 Possibilities

Administrator

Doubtful I will be driving in the Adk, but I get your point.

I'll drive most of the way before and after it snows. Surely I could get stuck.

Not sure about Johnny but for me, I might drive 8000 miles in winter. Probably 7600 is on dry interstate. I need a tire that won't drive me insane burning itself out on dry roads. Right or wrong I've done it this way since 1998.

"You just need to go at that shit wide open, hang on, and own it." —Camp

Harvey

Re: Jan 19 Possibilities

Administrator

One line caught my attention...

NWS ALY LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

The cyclone moves over the Delmarva Region Sunday morning and lifts northeast to just south of Long Island by the early afternoon.

That's a pretty good storm track.

"You just need to go at that shit wide open, hang on, and own it." —Camp

TheGreatAbyss

Re: Jan 19 Possibilities

I bought a set of Falken EuroWinter tires for my new wagon (will post about it an old thread after this weekend): http://www.falkentire.com/tires/car-tires/eurowinter-hs449-tire

They are advertised as winter tires but are supposed to perform better on dry roads, kind of like a more winter focused all season tire then the full blown Blizzaks. CR reviews confirmed this in their winter tire review as they had the best stopping ability on dry but not the best performance in snow.

I live in Brooklyn so I've certainly had to drive them on a few 60 degree days. We'll see how much tread is left at the end of the season but I only paid like $300 for them from Pep Boys. So if they last 2 seasons I'm okay with that.

JTG4eva!

Re: Jan 19 Possibilities

In reply to this post by Harvey

Ah, the good old Benchmark! A track just south of LI would put the low west of the Benchmark, which is a good thing for heavier snow inland.

We REALLY need a proper roll eyes emoji!!

JasonWx

Re: Jan 19 Possibilities

In reply to this post by Harvey

Harvey wrote

One line caught my attention...

NWS ALY LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

The cyclone moves over the Delmarva Region Sunday morning and lifts northeast to just south of Long Island by the early afternoon.

That's a pretty good storm track.

yes it is...
this is a real good pattern...Snowmaking temps for ever..if areas aren't 100% open in the next week, then they just don't want to be or can't afford to be.

"Peace and Love"

Harvey

Re: Jan 19 Possibilities

Administrator

https://nyskiblog.com/directory/weather-data/northeast-us/40-70-benchmark-map/

"You just need to go at that shit wide open, hang on, and own it." —Camp

JTG4eva!

Re: Jan 19 Possibilities

NOAA afternoon update still on track, still putting So. VT in the crosshairs, with potential mesoscale banding and 20+” possible. Platty seems to be in the right place, too. Calling for 8-15” in the Dacks and central/northern VT, with the possibility that the near surface arctic mass could result in some sublimation across the far north, keeping snow totals down. We’ll let Jason tell us what the heck that means!

We REALLY need a proper roll eyes emoji!!

JasonWx

Re: Jan 19 Possibilities

sublimation is going from a Solid to a Gas

If it's too cold snow can basically evaporate ..hence it can be to cold to snow..

"Peace and Love"

Harvey

Re: Jan 19 Possibilities

Administrator

In reply to this post by 2000yearoldskier

2000yearoldskier wrote

Seems like the entire US is storming.

"You just need to go at that shit wide open, hang on, and own it." —Camp

Saratogahalfday

Re: Jan 19 Possibilities

In reply to this post by JTG4eva!

The Albany stations are calling for 20+ in Southern VT.

Time to pack some shovels and kitty litter for Sunday!

campgottagopee

Re: Jan 19 Possibilities

Saratogahalfday wrote

Time to pack some shovels and kitty litter for Sunday!

When I was ski bumming around Smuggs we'd drive around in a beater truck pulling peeps out for drinking money

JTG4eva!

Re: Jan 19 Possibilities

In reply to this post by JasonWx

Yeah, scientifically I know what sublimation is, just didn’t know if meteorologically it meant something more specific. Let’s hope the snow doesn’t dry up before it hits the ground!

We REALLY need a proper roll eyes emoji!!

JasonWx

Re: Jan 19 Possibilities

also super cold air inhibits crystal formation..very cold air is just to dry to support the moister to form the crystals

"Peace and Love"

12345678