Storm Speculation: 1/23/2016 (Jonas)

Maps all over, still 3+ days out.  I'll let you weather geeks populate with the appropriate maps, and we can update when the NWS Forecast Discussion has something meaningful to say.

But here is the thread.  

Mountain-Forecast calling for 13 - 23 inches in the Cats (Bearpen to Hunter/Windham).  Showing bubkiss for the Dacks.  A couple inches for the Southern Greens (Stratton), with squat further north.  

I can't imagine that the same storm that delivers 13-20" for the Catskills will leave the Adirondacks completely dry. Even if it was just 4-6", that would help at Gore.

That being said, I'll see everyone at Plattekill on Saturday!

Platty for sure on Saturday. If the storm does come through it will be a great day and a white knuckle drive home. It'll be worth it.

One model I saw said 20-30 in Vernon, NJ.  Mountain Creek will be very very crowded.

snoloco wrote

One model I saw said 20-30 in Vernon, NJ.  Mountain Creek will be very very crowded.

Plattekill, no excuse.

Latest run, kicks the system out...If it verifies , Dusting or 1nch for the cats...

F this winter!!!!!!

I think you need the same reservations, four days out, that you'd have if it was all good news?

Tight gradient!



Elk, Timberline, GULP Wachusett?

Mohawk and Sundown

That is from the 12z GFS run
The 12z Euro was also further east....If the 0z goes east , then we might be cooked..

JasonWx wrote

Latest run, kicks the system out...If it verifies , Dusting or 1nch for the cats...

F this winter!!!!!!

Who cares, Hunter can make their own snow.  I'd rather the flatlands get it so the ski areas actually make money.

obviously you don't love winter weather..
I have been a weather Nut for 40yrs..I want to experience the storm,hear the thunder and watch ma nature do her thing..
Snow from machines ..Feh..A necessary evil..

mattchuck2 wrote

I can't imagine that the same storm that delivers 13-20" for the Catskills will leave the Adirondacks completely dry. Even if it was just 4-6", that would help at Gore.

That being said, I'll see everyone at Plattekill on Saturday!

Plattekill often can receive big storms that don't affect almost anyone else. If you ski there long enough you'll see it. Most of the time it would be 4-6 at Platty, then nowhere else, but sometimes a foot or more.

This most often happens early season before the lakes freeze with the right flow from lake effect, sometimes in the spring, and sometimes with the right nor'easter conditions where other areas get a mix and Plattekill stays behind the front.

Sheesh, Albany gets a foot, Saratoga zero.
Maple Ridge?

There will be a crazy sharp cut off for precipt..Not often do we have a totally cut off low in the box (40/70)..
It's kind of like a wobbly top ..Very hard to pin down who will get the accumulation prize.

Right now it looks like the northerly extend of the snow will be around Albany-ish..

The Berkshires look like they are in a good position, but that might change..More latter..

peace and love

Yea tight gradient.  Where is the 40/70 box?

Go GFS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

AS WE START THE WEEKEND...ALL ATTENTION IS ON THE EAST COAST STORM.
BASED ON THE 00Z FORECAST CONSENSUS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...THE
OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS APPEARS TOO BE THE OUTLIER WHICH WOULD
BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO MOST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...TRENDS
CONTINUE TO FAVOR A FURTHER SOUTH TRACK AND A STRONGER SURFACE RIDGE
CRESTING OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
SATURDAY. PROBABILITIES OF A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO OUR REGION IS
LOWERING AS WE TOO HAVE LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE I90 CORRIDOR. WHERE
WE KEPT LIKELY POPS WOULD BE TOWARD THE I84 CORRIDOR WHERE SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW ARE STILL POSSIBLE DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE
SURFACE LOW AND IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT OFF THE ATLANTIC.

Swing and a miss.

Maybe it'll be like the storm the same weekend last year when Vernon, NJ got 10 inches and nobody else got nearly as much.  Only issue is that those trails get so much traffic that they were skied off to usual conditions by 11, not to mention a line out of the ropes for the "gondola" and South Peak Express, which both took 15-20 minutes.  Backyard effect at its finest.  

Mountain Creek: Who cares! Nobody is going there but yahoos anyway....

Back to the weather..

The 12z  NAM gives a nice dose of snow to the poconos and N.E NJ...This is to be taken with a grain of salt...

Mountain-Forecast has severely cut back their snowfall forecast for the Cats.  They did up the forecast for the Hudson Highlands (Beacon Mountain, my back yard) to 20+ inches, not that snow does sliders much good in that Range!

Other forecasts putting the northern end of measureable snow around Kingston.

Be interesting to see where this thing really hits, but even if the forecasts are off it doesn't look like a win for any of the big ski hills.  Mount Peter.  Thunder Ridge.  Campgaw.  (gulp) Mountain Crick?  Who's hitting up those bad boys?