Storm Speculation: 3/12/14

Yep - that looks like a wiener

Yeah it does.

Ok not this big Wiener

Disturbing. I don't think I am going to be able to sleep tonight.

Going to be at Jay and Sugarbush Mon-Fri, call me gay but I love this snow weiner!

Storm Chubby!

^That pic is a major buzzkill.

This morning's NWS forecast discussion had all but written this storm off, but they are talking about it again. I'm a believe that the chance of mixed precip is a good thing:

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

The ecmwf continues to outdo the gfs with regard to the impending winter storm for mid-week.  And run-to-run ecmwf shows rather large swings in qpfs.  This would point to some degree of uncertainty in the actual outcome as far as total amounts.  Even so...Am very confident in there being significant precip for the wednesday night period...So have likely pops for almost all of the forecast area.

There is also increasing probability of this being a mixed precipitation event...Mainly for the southern zones.  It would mostly depend to what degree sufficiently cold air is already in place to result in a mostly snow event due to the fact that no major cold air infiltration is expected in advance of the system.  Any sleet and freezing rain will likely be restricted to well south of the capital region...But the uncertainty previously discussed would suggest that this could very well change.  How much sunshine early in the week and what wind pattern emerges will factor greatly into what this event brings.

Things are coming together. I think I picked a good time to go to Jay, skiing there Thursday through Saturday. The drive down on Wednesday evening could be interesting:

Josh Fox:

The European model and its ensembles have locked into a solution that would essentially bring us 2-3 feet of snow Wednesday into Thursday and actually bring some wintry mix into central Vermont during the event. Canadian and American models are now both on board with the event but they show the storms maturation mitigated by the polar jet somewhat. Both of these solutions suggest a more garden variety 6-12 inch event. A compromise of all these solutions works just fine by me and would include a 1-2 foot storm and epic powder day Thursday into Friday. The timing of the snow would include a start time of midday Wednesday with the heaviest snow occurring during the overnight into early Thursday.

Lionel:

...Close on it’s heels, a second low will affect the region monday into tuesday. THis low looks a little stronger than the first. The center of the low will track just north of the international border. It will bring the best snow to Sutton and Jay with that track. Overall it is a 2-4″ storm with pockets of 5-6″ possible closer to the border.

Lastly, on Thursday a storm ejecting out of the S/E will deepen near the coast and move up into the region. Currently this storm is progged to ride through NJ and NY harbor, over Long Island and out over Cape Cod. With a track like that, the core of any heavy snow associated with the system will likely be in Southern VT, Mass, So NH and Maine. Northern VT would see 4-8″ of snow with stronger N/E winds.

Please stop talking about this storm.  Creek and the rest of the mountains further south are getting r*in.  

snoloco wrote

Please stop talking about this storm.  Creek and the rest of the mountains further south are getting r*in.  

Going to be hard to get NY skiers to stop talking about something that has this potential.  Creek - mountain creek? NJ has had a pretty good year I think.  may be time to drive further north.

Thacheronix wrote

snoloco wrote

Please stop talking about this storm.  Creek and the rest of the mountains further south are getting r*in.  

Going to be hard to get NY skiers to stop talking about something that has this potential.  Creek - mountain creek? NJ has had a pretty good year I think.  may be time to drive further north.

I'm 15, so I can't drive.  Creek is the only mountain I can get to most days since my parents drop me off there.  I might need to take a break from this site for a while so I don't need to see everyone raving about powder while I get soaked to the bone in r*in.

snoloco wrote

...I might need to take a break from this site for a while so I don't need to see everyone raving about powder while I get soaked to the bone in r*in.

No, you should check in every day and read about it. This is an important life lesson every skier needs to learn. Some days the other guys are getting the goods and all you can do is stare out the window and dream.

Thank god we turned the page.

snoloco wrote

...raving about powder...

I wouldn't call what is going to fall farther north "powder" if that makes you feel any better. With luck it will qualify as snow.

When "spring" comes around what falls is often unfrozen, and you ski corn. No doubt spring comes sooner the farther south your are.

Looks to me (from your signature!) you're having a good season.  It ain't over!

I don't think I've seen a watch put up this far in advance in quite a while:

Harvey wrote

I wouldn't call what is going to fall farther north "powder" if that makes you feel any better. With luck it will qualify as snow.

Not sure what your going to call it but Wed night it's supposed to puke snow and be about 10F - you can call it what you like, I'm going to ski it like POW.

All I can say to Snoloco - it sucks being you, but it sucks even more living farther south. Be happy you get to ski as much as you do. Take this as a live lesson, make a quick gazillion, buy yourself your own chopper and a pilot and ski the world and laugh all day long at all of us.

Tim Kelley chimes in for JPR. Jackpot for SBR:

Tuesday night we have a new batch of much colder air pushing in from Canada in the northern stream. At the same time a very wet storm is lifting out of The Gulf of Mexico in the southern stream. Ought oh, that sounds like trouble. Dr Egon Spengler says we should never cross the streams, "that could be very bad". Ha!

Phasing the streams is good though if you like cold, wind, and snow. A Major Nor'easter will be in the Gulf of Maine Thursday morning. Here at Jay Peak that should mean 2 days of heavy snow, Wednesday-Thursday. The attendant wind and chill will add a decidedly January Attitude to this storm. If deep freshies with less wind are your choice, GET HERE FOR FIRST LIFT FRIDAY.

The storm riders of Thursday can not compete with the 55 mph wind (snow may stop falling, but wind will redistributing), That will leave you plenty of first tracks Friday morning. But move quick on Friday because more wind and snow should be here Friday night, yet another Clipper could deliver a little more snow for early Saturday as much warmer air arrives next weekend (not a melt down, just nice).

How much snow this week?

Here is a real daring attempt to answer that question.

Monday 2"

Tuesday 2"

Wednesday 8"

Thursday 9"

Friday (night) 1"

I believe that's about 22". When we deal in numbers of this magnitude the margin for error increases. So the forecast this week is 12"-32" of snow. It's about time March behaved like March is supposed to behave.

Are you ready to hear about The Saint Patrick's Day storm yet?

Just plowed 4 inches this am , BRING It !!

Good on ya SBR. Hope you have a blast at Jay. If this thing pans out it should set up everyone north of Albany nicely.

Snoloco man you have no idea how good you have it. You are 15 and have more ski days this year than probably 90% of the people on this board. You've gotten great snow this year with all the southern track storms. You should be smiling every day you wake up. Start lobbying your parents to escape from NJ and move north. I highly recommend it.

Yea forecast looks colder. Yesterday Josh Fox was calling for a mix in Central VT.  Even SNOLOCO may get something frozen out of this.  Still powder (blow it out your hand) isn't common in NY.

Hoping it stays mostly frozen in the higher elevations in the Cats...looking at Hunter or Belle maybe this weekend..