Storm Speculation: 3/12/14

This is starting to look pretty interesting for most of ski country.  Rain/Snow line needs to recede for the Cats, but for DAX, VT, etc.... this could be the biggest storm of the year.

Ok so everyone knows were getting a storm but how much?

Analyst-
Storm will be a phassing southern jet stream bomb, lacking a polar jet conection,
Will also have plenty of moisture to work with yeilding rain amounts of 1-3 inches

Add in the northern winds on the storms north and west flanks you bring in daytime temps of 26- 50 across ny, west being colder,
Stage two off the storm will funnle in cold air, with temps droping through the 20's into the single didgets throughout ny wednesday night and bringing near blizzard conditions, however cold air is dry air which will undercut precipitation and lighten amounts in some areas, the dry slot is imposable to predict but will happen

That brings snow amounts binghamton up 88 to just south of albany-
1-2" of sleet and freezing rain, .25 "of rain, 3-5" of snow, maybe more if colder

Elmira-ithaca, cortland to Norwich,  Schenectady to berlin pass
1-2"of sleet, 4-8" of snow

Corning-auburn- syracuse-johnstwon- lake George and north
6-12" of snow

Catskills- ice and rain, mountian snow
1"sleet, .5-.75 inches of rain 1-3"of snow, high peaks up to 10" of snow

Ski areas
Ice and wet powder
Greek peak, labrador, plattekill, bellayre, windham, hunter, holiday mt., catamount, swain
Wet powder under ligter powder-
Song, togenberg, bristol, holimount, peaknpeak, holiday valley, woods valley
Decent powder ( typical northeast)- bratling, royle, west, mc.cauly, gore, hickory, big tupper, titus, whiteface, any other aderondack ski area not named
Sorry you get rain and ice
Elk, montage, anything south of kingston ny


Storm can shift, but thats the looks right now based off of nam, gfs, euro, and canadian forcast modles

Any greekers keep close watch your on the jackpot/danger zone for dump of dud,

May the snow gods be kind to your home areas

How much? Well the most reliable predictor is the hair on the back of my Maine Coon, it's thick & no longer coming of in handfuls when when I comb her so it must be at least 12" of new snow and cold in the southern Daks, maybe up to 20+ when all is said and done because she is also refusing to go outside. These are sure predictors, scientifically proven.

Harvey wrote

Thank god we turned the page.

snoloco wrote

...raving about powder...

I wouldn't call what is going to fall farther north "powder" if that makes you feel any better. With luck it will qualify as snow.

When "spring" comes around what falls is often unfrozen, and you ski corn. No doubt spring comes sooner the farther south your are.

Looks to me (from your signature!) you're having a good season.  It ain't over!

I love showing off how many ski days I get, even if most of you hate the mountains I go to with a passion (Creek and sometimes Hunter).  However, it makes it harder for me to vent about r*in since you see how many ski days I am getting anyway.  I will do a major vent below anyway.  I need to blow off some steam about this storm.

I hope this storm tracks far north and we don't get any precipitation further south.  You upstaters will get the snow that you want, and I don't have to suffer another r*in event that could seriously hurt Creek's ability to stay open late.  I know we got all the snow last time, but upstate didn't get r*in.  If this storm doesn't track north Creek will get hurt while all the mountains further north will be helped.  That is the worst thing that can happen to me since I have to see everyone talking about fresh snow and late closings while I can't share the joy.  At least if it tracks north and Creek stays open late since they didn't get screwed by r*in, I have the choice to ski at Creek or drive north, but I hate having only one option.  Without Creek, I can't ski more than once a week since I can't go after school and my dad usually isn't up for 4 hours in the car to drive to Hunter 2 days in a row.  Even Hunter may get r*in so it will be icy as well as possibly causing serious terrain damage at Creek.  I hate this time of year when everyone I am around in school is hoping for spring while I want winter.  When I go to this site, there is still snow up north and I am far enough south that it is spring already and all we get is r*in.  Now my ski days are closer to getting seriously limited with every r*indrop that falls, while the mountains further north are getting snow and their seasons helped.  I think I will ask my teachers in school for extra homework on Wednesday.  I don't need it, but it sure beats getting soaked to the bone and seeing everyone here get powder.  When I am older I want to be super rich so I can buy a few houses at ski areas and ski at the one that got the goods.

PeeTex wrote

How much? Well the most reliable predictor is the hair on the back of my Maine Coon, it's thick & no longer coming of in handfuls when when I comb her so it must be at least 12" of new snow and cold in the southern Daks, maybe up to 20+ when all is said and done because she is also refusing to go outside. These are sure predictors, scientifically proven.

Most reliable source I've read so far regarding this storm

I go by nws, my own interpertation of the modles ( belive it or not I am kinda a amerture weatherman, nws storm spoter,  I am better with tornados and server storms though, 5 out of 7 on storms this year)

Powder is a hard call but nose diving temps will provide some at the end

Snow will start as a 4-1 snow and end as a 10-1 ---- 20-1 depending on how far north you are

20-1 is nice powder, but 1-3 inches of  the good stuff is what we get max

( sorey about the wrong thread)

But what I called powder is better the penut butter snow..... the wet clear slush, like the bottom of chair 3 at greek when it warms

Also to the maine coon, I also belive my messed up knee is a good predictor,  more pain, more precipitation,  I'm sure some of you also have weather predicting bones..

Definitely an active weather week. A clipper last night + another clipper tonight + mid-week storm + another clipper on Friday night = a great weekend to hit up Gore and Whiteface for the first time this season. I''l be at WF on Saturday and Gore on Sunday. See you on the hill...

In case you haven't heard, this storm has been named "Vulcan."

Skiers shall live long and prosper.

Does anyone know how this pans out for So. Vt  

My sister owns a place at Mt. Snow and invited me.  My mt. is Gore but I take a free place when it is offered.


Thanks,
SirSki

Josh at MRG weather calling for 20-30", "best storm of the year."  

Can't resist this, I know you have all seen it but:

evergreen wrote

Josh at MRG weather calling for 20-30", "best storm of the year."

The Maine Coon started nipping tonight when I tried to comb her, sure sign it's gonna be a big storm. She never lies.

That purple is like 2 inches of liquid equivalent:

i'm on board. both if them.

Update from Lionel:

http://www.famousinternetskiers.com/march-of-the-storms/

He's talking about mixing (at least) as far north as Albany and Rutland.

All the models are trending further north with the low.  While the Cats may see a decent snowfall Wed night after a mixed bag during the day, this could be the biggest storm of the season for the Dacks.  Let's hope it doesn't keep trending further north!

A few modles have ran south in the past hours, nam model being the best looking for us

10-14 for greek peak though I doubt that will come to play

Gore and Whiteface look 12+, biggest storm of the year easy.

I guess it is just as well that there is going to be so much snow up north because all the mountains further north need natural snow to have a good ski experience, they can't do without it.  We don't need any at Creek, Peter, Tuxedo Ridge, or Hunter (since that is not "north enough" for most people here) to have a good year.  We make winter ourselves, not rely on unreliable snow storms.  Vulcan, bring on all the r*in you want, I dare you.  I also guarantee that Creek will still be open till at least March 30th no matter how much r*in we get.  Hunter just announced that they will stay open till at least April, 13 too.  So enjoy shoveling out of the driveway and dealing with the ever growing snow piles, bad roads, and car accidents to get to your overrated "powder".  It's probably going to crappy heavy and wet anyway and then thaw and freeze over into boilerplate.  I don't need to do any shoveling to get to Creek or brave the bad roads or risk life and limb.  Just means more time on the slopes for me.  If you want spring skiing and not boilerplate every day, it may be time to drive south to Creek where it softens up earlier in the day.  You can also keep going after 4pm with all the daylight still there since we have night skiing.  That is what I will be doing for the rest of the year, with some Hunter trips thrown in till both mountains close, then finish out The Beast of the East.

snoloco wrote

I guess it is just as well that there is going to be so much snow up north because all the mountains further north need natural snow to have a good ski experience, they can't do without it.  We don't need any at Creek, Peter, Tuxedo Ridge, or Hunter (since that is not "north enough" for most people here) to have a good year.  We make winter ourselves, not rely on unreliable snow storms.  Vulcan, bring on all the r*in you want, I dare you.  I also guarantee that Creek will still be open till at least March 30th no matter how much r*in we get.  Hunter just announced that they will stay open till at least April, 13 too.  So enjoy shoveling out of the driveway and dealing with the ever growing snow piles, bad roads, and car accidents to get to your overrated "powder".  It's probably going to crappy heavy and wet anyway and then thaw and freeze over into boilerplate.  I don't need to do any shoveling to get to Creek or brave the bad roads or risk life and limb.  Just means more time on the slopes for me.  If you want spring skiing and not boilerplate every day, it may be time to drive south to Creek where it softens up earlier in the day.  You can also keep going after 4pm with all the daylight still there since we have night skiing.  That is what I will be doing for the rest of the year, with some Hunter trips thrown in till both mountains close, then finish out The Beast of the East.

Keep it up you little petulant bastard and we're going to put you in detention till summer vacation!