The Lake Effect Thread

Harvey wrote

Wow seven clappers. That's some psych. Pretty cool cam shot.

I know SR will get two feet and Gore may get two inches but whenever lake effect actually reaches Gore I feel obligated to point it out.



Skimore... you headed?

Yeah Harv, I'm stoked, Snow Ridge has made my season...so far. Can't wait to ski it tomorrow, frozen granular groomers are a yawn in comparison. I like skiing in snow better.

Harvey wrote

Skimore... you headed?

yes, bunch of us

All right gentlemen keep us in the loop.

Sounds like a primo New Years Day.

I think Gore got like 4 inches from lake effect....I got 3 inches in Bolton Landing!

4-6 on the Summit this morning.  A good 8 to 10 inches so far this week on the Summit and more to come

OFF LAKE ONTARIO SNOW TOTALS WILL LIKELY EXCEED 3 FEET OF
SNOW WITH MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE HIGHLIGHTED TIME
PERIOD.

ACCUMULATIONS...ICE ACCUMULATING UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH LATE
  THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SNOW ACCUMULATING 3 TO 5
  INCHES MONDAY...MORE THAN 2 FEET MONDAY NIGHT...MORE THAN 2
  FEET TUESDAY...5 TO 10 INCHES TUESDAY NIGHT...AND AN INCH OR
  LESS WEDNESDAY...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF MORE THAN 5 FEET
  IN PERSISTENT BANDS

NAM12 BUFKIT PROFILES OVER THE LAKES SHOW AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
 STRONG OMEGA FORECAST WITHIN THE BANDS LASTING 24 TO 36 HOURS. SNOW
 ACCUMULATION FORECASTS WERE MORE SUBJECTIVE BASED ON EXPERIENCE THAN
 UPON ANY PARTICULAR MODEL OR BLEND OF MODELS. OVERALL WE EXPECT 2 TO
 3 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES OFF THE LAKE ONTARIO BAND AND 1 TO 2
 INCH PER HOUR RATES OFF THE LAKE ERIE BAND THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND
 MUCH OF TUESDAY. THE DURATION OF THESE EXTREME SNOW RATES WILL YIELD
 THE EXPECTED SEVERAL FEET OF SNOW EAST OF BOTH LAKES. A MAX OF
 AROUND 36 INCHES WOULD BE POSSIBLE JUST SOUTH OF BUFFALO FROM THE
 LAKE ERIE SNOW BAND THROUGH THE EVENT AND POSSIBLY OVER 5 OR 6 FEET
 ACROSS THE TUG HILL FROM THE LAKE ONTARIO BAND. THE ADDITIONAL UPLIFT
 FROM THE TUG HILL AND MORE STEADY ORIENTATION OF THE LAKE ONTARIO
 BAND IS REASONING FOR SUCH HIGH SNOW TOTALS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
 THE LAKE ERIE BAND LOOKS TO SHIFT A BIT MORE SO SNOW TOTALS WHERE
 CUT SOME DUE TO THIS FACTOR. THERE WILL BE VERY TIGHT SNOWFALL
 GRADIENTS ON BOTH BAND FROM THE CENTER TO THE OUTER EDGES WHICH IS
 TYPICAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT MAY BE ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE ACROSS
METRO BUFFALO. WHILE

5-6 feet. wow.

Thinking of hitting McCauley, they're calling for up to 30" out of this LE event. Skiing 4ft at SR on 12/13 was fun, but I don't think my knee is up to another go at that much snow.

Skimore... is it unusual to have so much snow falling over the lake itself?  Is it because of the extreme cold of the air mass?

It is unusual, but you are asking the wrong person why it's going on now

All you want to know here

https://www.eol.ucar.edu/field_projects/owles

 ACCUMULATIONS...MORE THAN 2 FEET TONIGHT...MORE THAN 2 FEET
  TUESDAY...10 TO 20 INCHES TUESDAY NIGHT...AND 3 TO 5 INCHES
  WEDNESDAY LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 6 FEET IN THE HEART OF
  THE BAND.

skimore wrote

It is unusual, but you are asking the wrong person why it's going on now

Going out on a limb here but maybe the east end of the lake is frozen?

Wait until the next sunny day and check out the daily satellite images here:
http://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/modis/modis.cgi/modis?region=g&page=1

 further NW from Snowridge

Tonight Snow with areas of blowing snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 4. Wind chill values as low as -20. Breezy, with a west wind 15 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 38 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 20 to 26 inches possible.
Wednesday Snow with areas of blowing snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 13. Wind chill values as low as -15. Southwest wind 14 to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 11 to 16 inches possible.
Wednesday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 5. Wind chill values as low as -10. Southwest wind 8 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 9 to 13 inches possible

skimore wrote

further NW from Snowridge

Tonight Snow with areas of blowing snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 4. Wind chill values as low as -20. Breezy, with a west wind 15 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 38 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 20 to 26 inches possible.
Wednesday Snow with areas of blowing snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 13. Wind chill values as low as -15. Southwest wind 14 to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 11 to 16 inches possible.
Wednesday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 5. Wind chill values as low as -10. Southwest wind 8 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 9 to 13 inches possible

So when are you going skimore?

I'm seriously thinking about a possible trip south of the border on Thursday. They are a few things I need to work out first.

MadPatSki wrote

So when are you going skimore?

I'm seriously thinking about a possible trip south of the border on Thursday. They are a few thighs I need to work out first.

Weds and Thurs so far..........not exactly sure where just yet though

Any opinions on Dry Hill? It would seem that it is at the centre of the latest lake effect (12'-18') versus Snow Ridge (1-2).

Looks like I might be heading to SR tomorrow morning. :)