The Lake Effect Thread

  Just a dusting by Snow Ridge standards, about a foot. Watertown was the bullseye of this event. Snow is supposed to shift South after midnight, but NOAA's not calling for much here overnight. If we get nothing, I may head to Gore. MadPatSki, I sent you an email. PDQ, sorry I didn't invite you to come with today. If it were a day trip, I would've.

  I struck up a conversation with a young man at lunch who told me he had earned some turns at SR the day prior to opening day. I asked him if he posted a TR online. Small world, it was ml242, great to meet and ski with you!

http://www.syracuse.com/news/index.ssf/2014/01/lake_effect_snow_study_in_tug_hill_new_york_hits_snow_jackpot_this_winter.html#incart_m-rpt-2

Cool article skimore, LES has salvaged my season so far, seven powder days so far, four have been at Snow Ridge. I posted in another forum that I can ski SR six times for under $100, they asked if I was under 5 yrs old, gotta love it. Bring on the next "Polar Vortex"!

Cornhead wrote

Cool article skimore, LES has salvaged my season so far, seven powder days so far, four have been at Snow Ridge. I posted in another forum that I can ski SR six times for under $100, they asked if I was under 5 yrs old, gotta love it. Bring on the next "Polar Vortex"!

The only way you are going to ski Snow Ridge 6 times for under $100 is if you sleep in your car 5 nights.

Last storm:

x10003q wrote

Cornhead wrote

Cool article skimore, LES has salvaged my season so far, seven powder days so far, four have been at Snow Ridge. I posted in another forum that I can ski SR six times for under $100, they asked if I was under 5 yrs old, gotta love it. Bring on the next "Polar Vortex"!

The only way you are going to ski Snow Ridge 6 times for under $100 is if you sleep in your car 5 nights.

Lift ticket costs, $15 midweek with the reciprocal deal with Greek Peak. It cost me $60 to drive there and back. I've only stayed overnight once, lodging is a little pricey with all the snowmobilers in the area. Daytripping is a better strategy for me for SR. It is the ideal hooky spot, "Maybe he really is sick, it didn't snow last night."

Cornhead wrote

"Maybe he really is sick, it didn't snow last night."

This is a classic.

Buff discussion is slightly optimistic

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DESPITE THE VERY INTERESTING WEATHER PATTERN...THERE WILL BE LITTLE
ACTUAL WEATHER TO TALK ABOUT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE
EFFECT EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO

 
ON SUNDAY...THE PASSING OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP TO GENERATE
SOME NUISANCE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
ENHANCED A BIT EAST AND NORTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES WHERE A CAP OF 6K FT
AND A MINIMALLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE. SNOW ACCUMS
WILL BE UNDER AN INCH IN MOST AREAS...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWS
POSSIBLE NEAR AND NORTH OF THE TUG HILL WHERE SUBSTANTIAL LAKE
EFFECT WILL BE LIKELY. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 25
TO 30.


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH...AND LIKELY
WELL BEYOND...THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS ALL AVAILABLE ENSEMBLES ARE IN
STRONG AGREEMENT THAT AN UNUSUALLY STRONG +PNA PATTERN WILL PERSIST.
THE LAST TIME WE EXPERIENCED A +PNA OF THIS MAGNITUDE WAS THE WINTER
OF 2009-2010 WHEN TEMPERATURES EVERY WINTER MONTH AVERAGED BELOW
NORMAL. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT SIMILAR WEST COAST TO SIBERIA
RIDGING WAS IN PLACE DURING THE INFAMOUS WINTER OF 1976-77.

THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A PERSISTENT FLOW OUT OF THE CANADIAN
ARCTIC...WITH ENSEMBLES NOW SUGGESTING REINFORCING ARCTIC AIR OUT OF
SIBERIA WITHIN TIMES OF CROSS POLAR FLOW. IF THIS WERE TO VERIFY...
IT IS LIKELY THAT WE WOULD EXPERIENCE WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

WHILE IT WILL BE QUITE COLD DURING THIS PERIOD...THE DOMINATING
NORTHERN STREAM WILL KEEP THE NORMALLY MORE ACTIVE SUB TROPICAL JET
WELL TO OUR SOUTH...THUS SPARING US FROM ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN
EVENTS. INSTEAD...THE FRIGID WEATHER WILL ENCOURAGE PERSISTENT LAKE
SNOWS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. DAILY SNOWFALL FROM THIS
ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT...ALTHOUGH TOTAL AMOUNTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD COULD ADD UP TO RESPECTABLE AMOUNTS

This  is a dry cold pattern..Unless you live lee of the lakes..

I'm not trying to be a debby downer  here. If you are a big mountain operator in NY or VT this is bad news

skimore wrote

Buff discussion is slightly optimistic

 

THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A PERSISTENT FLOW OUT OF THE CANADIAN
ARCTIC...WITH ENSEMBLES NOW SUGGESTING REINFORCING ARCTIC AIR OUT OF
SIBERIA WITHIN TIMES OF CROSS POLAR FLOW. IF THIS WERE TO VERIFY...
IT IS LIKELY THAT WE WOULD EXPERIENCE WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

WHILE IT WILL BE QUITE COLD DURING THIS PERIOD...THE DOMINATING
NORTHERN STREAM WILL KEEP THE NORMALLY MORE ACTIVE SUB TROPICAL JET
WELL TO OUR SOUTH...THUS SPARING US FROM ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN
EVENTS. INSTEAD...THE FRIGID WEATHER WILL ENCOURAGE PERSISTENT LAKE
SNOWS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. DAILY SNOWFALL FROM THIS
ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT...ALTHOUGH TOTAL AMOUNTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD COULD ADD UP TO RESPECTABLE AMOUNTS

JasonWx wrote

This  is a dry cold pattern..Unless you live lee of the lakes..

I'm not trying to be a debby downer  here. If you are a big mountain operator in NY or VT this is bad news

Fun can be had at locations lee of the lakes like Greek and such. Plattekill can get in on the SE flow. Shit, I'd rather ski Plattekill than the big mountain operations in NY

Platt gets LES on a  N/NW flow.. SE flow favors Toronto..
platt needs real coastal storms to hook up..The lake effect is window dressing..Hey, I  hope Platt gets clobbered . Its less than a 2hr drive for me..

From my girl Rebecca.....https://www.facebook.com/#!/pages/Rebeccas-Northeast-weather-and-education-page/254982781215764





Sorry this is late.... had a few meeting I had to attend.....
 
Today will mark the end of the milder temperatures we've been enjoying...... earlier today some of us in NYS and PA saw a quick 1-3 inches of snow.............
 
Over the course of the weekend a series of disturbances will pass through the region.
 
Our next weather maker is making its way out of the Ohio Valley it will be bringing widespread snow showers and possibly a little mixing at times into PA and NYS, during the night and overnight. . For the most part the snow looks light...in the 1-3 inch range....

We will see a stronger area of low pressure developing over southern New England later tonight and early Saturday morning, this will help beef-up the snow amounts. This will pass into the Gulf of Maine Saturday night.

Those with the best chance of seeing enough snow to worry about will be north and east of NYC.

These are the areas that I will mention .... But generally a dusting to 3 inches will be the case for PA NYS into New England

Dusting to maybe an inch for, Lehigh Valley, southeast PA toward NYC. Those in NYC would see a rain/snow mix .... changing to rain by tomorrow.... there could be a freezing drizzle for parts of the southern Hudson Valley into area's northwest of the city.

Northern NYS, (Tug and Adirondacks) D to a couple of inches.... especially for those in the southern Adirondacks.

For the northern Hudson Valley 1-3 inches. Catskills into around Oneonta 3-5 inches.

 1-3 inches for the Twin Tier of PA and NYS , NE PA, however, Oneida, Cortland, Utica/Rome could pick up 2--4, Catskills into around Oneonta 3-5 inches.

For New England:

 The snow looks light across inland CT, so a dusting to a couple of inches.

 It looks like 1-3" is possible away from the coast, for most of VT, NH and MA... could be a bit more in some higher elevations,

Those with the best chance of seeing decent snow are those in southern and east central NH , NE MA form Newton north, southern and central Maine (south of Greenville)....in these area 3-6 inches is possible, with a few spots picking up a bit more....
 
Another clipper system will move in late on Sunday with another batch of snow showers. This clipper will have wind with it.... so don't be surprised if you see some wind advisories go up for some areas.
 
Then we will see our Arctic front pull through on Tuesday, bringing much colder air into the Northeast.... I will post in detail about the cold in a few minutes.

JasonWx wrote

SE flow favors Toronto..

What???
Toronto? Toronto, Ontario?
I'm not a specialist in TO snow, but LES would be pretty rare events. Any SE flow would favour areas south of Georgian Bay along the Niagara Escarpment and Ontario ski central around Collingwood and further East towards Barrie.

Any thoughts SBR? As you are closest than anyone I know that lives close to potential LES off the East of Georgian Bay.

I was being sarcastic with Toronto..I'm sure skimore mis-spoke..

with this type of pattern..winds over the lake will be in the w/southwest direction or north /northwest..depending on how the High sets up..

JasonWx wrote

I was being sarcastic with Toronto..I'm sure skimore mis-spoke..

with this type of pattern..winds over the lake will be in the w/southwest direction or north /northwest..depending on how the High sets up..

Sarcastic doesn't translate well on the internet...I know, people have taken me serious a number of times when I wasn't. :)

For LES on Toronto... I thought it might have meant stuff from Lake Huron/Georgian Bay, not Lake Ontario.

Yes, I was referencing the NWS statement of SE of the lakes. Such as this

http://nyskiblog.com/forums/#nabble-td1027323i20

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER
IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES

* TIMING...THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 6 TO 10 INCHES. HIGHEST
  FOCUSED ACROSS THE TUG HILL.

.LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 11 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...OSWEGO...JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES.

* TIMING...THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES TODAY...5 TO 10 INCHES TONIGHT...
   4 TO 8 INCHES TUESDAY...3 TO 5 INCHES TUESDAY NIGHT...AND AN
  INCH OR LESS WEDNESDAY
Planning on being there Wednesday, anyone else?

Cornhead wrote

Planning on being there Wednesday, anyone else?

Professor Corn are you taking Wed. off? The skiing should be epic... I'll give you a call later.
(they will open on Wed. even if it's real cold?)