The Lake Effect Thread

Kind of a cool streamer..

  I thought I read somewhere all the Great Lakes were now frozen over.

Lake Effect Snow Advisory
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
638 AM EST TUE FEB 25 2014

NYZ008-252000-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-140226T1200Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.A.0006.140226T1200Z-140227T0600Z/
LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...LOWVILLE
638 AM EST TUE FEB 25 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* LOCATIONS...LEWIS COUNTY...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ON THE TUG
  HILL PLATEAU.

* TIMING...THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY.
  WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH.

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE
  POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL 7 INCHES OR MORE BETWEEN WEDNESDAY
  AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
Maybe the ditch is in my future?

Cornhead wrote

Maybe the ditch is in my future?

LOL, I didn't know that was its nickname.

Jamesdeluxe wrote

Cornhead wrote

Maybe the ditch is in my future?

LOL, I didn't know that was its nickname.

I can't take credit, Noah John authored that one. Can't find the post, but his description was hilarious. Hey, 500ft of pow for $15, I'm in.

Here you go,

Noah John wrote

Well, nobody really cares about the 3 feet of Fake Effect that happened to blow into a drainage ditch in some cornfield in Oswego County that you're always bloviating about. I'll take a foot plus of manmade on Upper Mac over that silliness any day.

VIVA LA ZANJA!

Ever wonder why Snow Ridge is still getting pounded when other lake effect hotspots (like where I live) have shut down?

Satellite image from March 5. Look at which Great Lake is still mostly open water:



The daily Great Lakes satellite image can be found here.

STL River Effect?

Harvey wrote

STL River Effect?

Orographic lift from Lake Huron possibly?

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP FOR MAINLY
FAVORED 260 TO 270 WIND FLOW AREAS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY ACROSS THE
TUG HILL PLATEAU AND WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES NEARING MINUS 12C.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND 850MB TEMPS
HOVER BETWEEN MINUS 10C AND MINUS 12C.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO SATURDAY WILL WEAKEN
FOR ABOUT A 6 TO 12 HOUR PERIOD LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT IN A WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW. AREAS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MAY RECEIVE ADDITIONAL MODERATE SNOW AMOUNTS.

Next week could get interesting

THE PATTERN BECOMES FAR MORE INTERESTING EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LONG
 ADVERTISED PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE TAKING SHAPE ACROSS NORTH
 AMERICA...WITH A STRONG WEST COAST RIDGE ALLOWING AN IMPRESSIVE
 LONGWAVE TROUGH TO CARVE OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH
 AMERICA. THE MEAN PATTERN FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A DEEP
TROUGH CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF HUDSON BAY...WITH NUMEROUS HIGH
AMPLITUDE CLIPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH.
PAST CLIMATOLOGY RESEARCH AND EXPERIENCE SUGGESTS THIS PATTERN CAN
 BE VERY ACTIVE FOR HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN OUR REGION...AND THIS
 APPEARS TO BE THE CASE WITH THIS PATTERN AS WELL.

 DEEP COLD AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW FOR A
 STRONG AND DEEP LAKE RESPONSE AT TIMES...WITH THE NUMEROUS MID LEVEL
 WAVES PROVIDING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DEEPER MOISTURE. THESE WAVES
 WILL ALSO BRING CHANGES TO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DIRECTION...
 SUGGESTING MIGRATING BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. OBVIOUSLY AT THIS
 TIME RANGE THE DETAILS ARE VERY UNCERTAIN...BUT THE LARGE SCALE
 PATTERN CERTAINLY SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG LASTING...
 SIGNIFICANT...HIGH IMPACT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF LAKES ERIE AND
 ONTARIO THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED.

Looks like some prolonged lake snows. Possibly get some w adk stuff online

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED IN THIS SPACE FOR DAYS...NEXT WEEK WILL
FEATURE A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...WITH AN
AMPLIFYING WEST COAST RIDGE FORCING DOWNSTREAM DEVELOPMENT OF
A MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CONTINENT...THE CORE OF WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY
BECOME CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY. THIS EVOLUTION IN THE LARGE-
SCALE PATTERN WILL DIRECT REPEATED SHOTS OF COLD CANADIAN AIR
ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES FALLING TO
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS...AND MORE IMPORTANTLY A GREATLY HEIGHTENED
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO.

AS IS USUALLY THE CASE IN SUCH A REGIME...NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES
ROTATING THROUGH THE PARENT SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION ALONG WITH THEIR ATTENDANT CLIPPER SYSTEMS.
WHILE THESE SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE JUST SOME LIMITED LIGHT SNOW
OF THEIR OWN FROM TIME TO TIME...THESE WILL GREATLY IMPACT BOTH
THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY BY DELIVERING
FRESH SHOTS OF COLD AIR...ENHANCING BACKGROUND MOISTURE AND LIFT...
AND DRIVING FLUCTUATIONS IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW THAT WILL RESULT IN
THE LAKE SNOWS MEANDERING NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS BOTH FAR WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. AS A RESULT...BOTH OF THESE REGIONS
CAN EXPECT MULTIPLE BOUTS OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...SOME OF WHICH
COULD BE SIGNIFICANT/HIGH IMPACT IN NATURE.

DELVING A LITTLE MORE CLOSELY INTO THE FORECAST DETAILS...COLD
AIR WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE
OF THE SUNDAY/S STRONG SYSTEM...WITH ANY LINGERING SYNOPTICALLY-
DRIVEN MIXED LIGHT RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS CONSEQUENTLY CHANGING
OVER TO ALL SNOW WHILE TAPERING OFF. AT THE SAME TIME THE DEEPENING
COLD AIR WILL DRIVE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LAKE RESPONSE FIRST OFF
LAKE ERIE AND THEN LAKE ONTARIO ON A GENERAL WESTERLY TO WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...WITH THIS THEN CONTINUING RIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. 12Z BUFKIT DATA STILL SUGGESTS THAT LAKE EQLS
WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 10-12 KFT DURING THIS PERIOD WHICH IS PLENTY
ENOUGH FOR A HEALTHY LAKE RESPONSE...THOUGH A DRIER THAN IDEAL
AIRMASS BELOW THIS LEVEL REMAINS AS A POTENTIAL NEGATIVE INFLUENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY THE FIRST CLIPPER SYSTEM LOOKS TO RIPPLE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW...WHILE FORCING
THE LAKE SNOWS TO MIGRATE NORTHWARD AND LIKELY WEAKEN THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY AND BECOMES
INCREASINGLY SHEARED...AND AS MILDER AIR IS DRAWN NORTHEASTWARD INTO
OUR REGION. WITH THE PASSAGE OF ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...RENEWED COLD AIR ADVECTION/VEERING WINDS AND A
RESULTANT INCREASE IN FETCH SHOULD THEN HELP TO RE-INVIGORATE THE LAKE
BANDS AND DRIVE THEM BACK SOUTHWARD LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...
WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS THEN MORE OR LESS CONTINUING ON A GENERAL
WESTERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER OUT IN TIME TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD...IT LOOKS AS IF WE/LL PROBABLY REPEAT THIS WHOLE PROCESS
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES
OUR REGION.

1st round looks good

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FIRST OF TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENTS IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH THE TWO EVENTS SEPARATED BY THE PASSAGE OF AN ALBERTA
CLIPPER. THE SECOND EVENT IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER IS EXPECTED TO
BE A MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT EVENT STARTING MID NEXT WEEK WITH
DETAILS INCLUDED IN THE LONG TERM SECTION BELOW AND HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCHES/WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS FIRST EVENT ONLY WHILE WHILE HEADLINES
FOR THE SECOND EVENT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS THE SECOND EVENT
BECOMES MORE CLEAR.

Real deal.

That map won't even be close to what falls on the tug

A SECOND MORE SIGNIFICANT...LONGER DURATION AND HIGH IMPACT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW EVENT IS EXPECTED FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH FRIDAY ON THE
HEELS THE ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM. ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT
HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS THIS SECOND EVENT APPROACHES.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS CLIPPER A BROAD AND DEEP -2 TO -3 SD 500MB
TROUGH WILL DIP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK WHILE THE CLIPPER KICKS OFF THE MAINE COAST AND SHIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS FITS THE PATTERN OF
CLASSIC SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT EVENTS WHEN COMPARING TO LOCAL
RESEARCH COMPOSITES. 850MB TEMPS WILL AGAIN LOWER TOWARD -18C OR
COOLER AGAIN TRIGGERING VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND TALL LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS. 24 TO 36 HOURS OF PERSISTENT COLD 270 DEGREE
FLOW ACROSS THE LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH A FAVORABLE
BACKGROUND SYNOPTIC MOISTURE PATTERN WILL LIKELY BRING SNOW TOTALS
MEASURING IN FEET OF SNOW FOR AREAS EAST OF THE LAKES THAT SEE THE
BANDS LOCK IN PLACE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY MEAN SNOWFALL FROM THE THE TOP 15 CIPS ANALOGS WHICH
SHOW SIMILAR PATTERNS HAVE PRODUCED SNOWFALL TOTALS MEASURED IN FEET
EAST OF BOTH LAKES. THUNDERSNOW WITH SNOW RATES OF SEVERAL INCHES AN
HOUR MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

THE EVENT LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WHERE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
VEER TO NORTHWEST AS A BROAD ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ACT TO LOWER LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS AS 850MB TEMPS WARM SOME AND SHIFT THE LAKE BANDS SOUTH TO
THE SOUTHERN LAKE SHORES POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY. IN THIS STATE THE
BANDS WILL TAKE ON A MUCH LESS ORGANIZED MULTI-BAND ORIENTATION. A
LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FROM THE SOUTHWARD BUILDING HIGH WILL
EVENTUALLY SQUASH THE LAKE BANDS BRINGING THE EVENT TO AN END NEAR
OR OVER NEXT WEEKEND. IT IS FAR TOO SOON TO PRODUCE CONFIDENT SNOW
TOTALS FOR SPECIFIC AREAS FOR THIS SECOND EVENT. AN UPDATED
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK HAS BEEN ISSUED PROVIDE MORE DETAIL TO
COVER THIS MORE SIGNIFICANT SECOND EVENT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEK WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY INTO THE 20S
AND LOWS OVERNIGHT IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.

True... but brown (20+) is as high as it goes. I was looking at how far west the band is prog'd to go, which seems like an indication sign of a very strong lake response.

Harvey wrote

True... but brown (20+) is as high as it goes. I was looking at how far west the band is prog'd to go, which seems like an indication sign of a very strong lake response.

Going to be some crazy snowfall rates........somewhere

That is IMO one of the COOLEST things about LE bands. ^^^^