Winter 2015 - 16 Long Range Forecasts

Let's hope so.  I am getting worried, and my wife is getting concerned about my winter stoke.  

Do people think there will be skiing by Thanksgiving?  Gore I guess seems a no brainer.  What about the Cats and (hate to say it here) the Poconos?

DomB wrote

Do people think there will be skiing by Thanksgiving?  Gore I guess seems a no brainer.

I'm no weather guy but not confident of this.

Harvey wrote

DomB wrote

Do people think there will be skiing by Thanksgiving?  Gore I guess seems a no brainer.

I'm no weather guy but not confident of this.

I doubt even Kmart can make it through this to be able to make enough to get something going again by turkey day but I hope I am wrong.

why all the long faces??
Better to be warm now then in January.. WROD skiing sucks..

I would rather MTB then ski a ribbon of ice with a gazillion people..

JasonWx wrote

why all the long faces??
Better to be warm now then in January.. WROD skiing sucks..

I would rather MTB then ski a ribbon of ice with a gazillion people..

I'm usually not out until the back country is in play, so I am use to waiting. I just feel for Others and will miss all the early season stoke as people mumble around kicking anything in their path

My face is not long, by any definition. (It is round and fat by one definition.)

But seriously it is what it is.

If anything I wish I'd been able to get to the mtns over the last month to ride the trails.

Harvey wrote

But seriously it is what it is.

Exactly! I'd rather have snow as well, but no snow isn't going to stop me from enjoying every second I have out in the woods.

JasonWx wrote

why all the long faces??
Better to be warm now then in January.. WROD skiing sucks..

I would rather MTB then ski a ribbon of ice with a gazillion people..

this, just extends mtb season a few weeks - just dust of that day-glo!!!

This is what Darrin was talking about in his long range. Jet trough moving east.  It was his opinion that it would be a while before it got to the east coast.



This is forever away (end of month) but looks fun:

Hmmmm, possible white T-day

http://flxweather.com/2015/11/16/sunny-comfortable-start-to-week/

looks like we get cold tues before thanksgiving, unfortunately it looks to warm up significantly after..
the west is getting much needed snow...they are due

First time in a long time these maps have shown a predominance of blue.

Josh Fox is out with his winter outlook:
Can this season's big El Nino wreck our winter ?

The bottom line:
Once this is all boiled down to an actual forecast it looks like this. Even the big snow cover number we saw in the NH this October/November will not be able to thwart the mild weather. Temperatures this winter will average 2-4 degrees above normal for the season. That said, I expect a stretch during the winter with some respectable cold though this will pale in comparison to the cold last winter. The snowfall result should be better than what we see on the temperature front. Expect some very crappy periods, such as the one staring us in the face for early December. When the pattern does align though, we should 1 or perhaps 2 amazing stretches of weather. I am going to guess that this all happens in the Jan/Feb period right now but it's tough to know for sure. Snowfall should come in around average.  

This would be the early December period.

Important to remember that those scary red maps only represent how much warmer than average the temp will be. If you look at the numbers, it looks like it's cold enough for snowmaking almost every night for the foreseeable future.

Cold temps in the mountains and mild temps around the house is fine with me.

matt I agree with you, but the long range isn't encouraging.. But It's a the long range.  We worry too much about the early season. I would rather have a banner Feb/March.

JasonWx wrote

We worry too much about the early season. I would rather have a banner Feb/March.

Cheers to that.

Only issue for me is if it's a shitty early season, followed by a shitty late season. Here's a thread from 2011-2012 (a year with a whopping 82" of snow at Gore for the whole winter) where we were all saying "it will get better, it will get better" until it didn't:

http://forum.nyskiblog.com/Long-Term-Prognostication-Winter-2011-12-tp3532560p3677705.html

Not to say I didn't have fun that year (October skiing in Killington was sweet and my trip to Alaska didn't suck at all). Just that it's possible that we might get skunked again.

But I'm still optimistic about this season. I'll take slightly warmer than last year with an active storm pattern all day.

This looks to be more of a favorable season for the west.  I'm thinking this will be even worse than 11-12 for the east, possibly even as bad as 06-07 when Mountain Creek was closed for most of January.  I'm not concerned about Mountain Creek being open for Christmas because I'll be away that entire week anyway.  I just hope they're open by the time I get back.  Luckily this is the first season that I'll have my drivers license, so at least I'll be able to drive to a place that's actually open.

Hunter may be able to open next weekend, but I'm not sure if it's a guarantee.  40's during the day and barely in the 20's during some nights.

Steamboat seems to be doing fine with top to bottom skiing, a few inches of snow yesterday into today, and 3-6+ coming Sunday into Monday.  Hopefully they'll get enough to open all the lifts by the time I'm there.

Models paint a bleak picture from Coast to Coast...At least for the next 10days...

The west is cold enough that they aren't getting any r*in.  Steamboat has been in the teens and 20's recently.  Even if it's warmer, they may still get snow @ elevation.  The lowest elevation of any non snowmaking lift at Steamboat is the Pony Express at 8'000 feet.  The Sundown cam shows coverage that looks maybe a week or 2 from opening.

I'm not really concerned about Mountain Creek this early because I'll be away during the time it's most important that it be open.