Winter 2015 - 16 Long Range Forecasts

ScottyJack wrote

keep the mtn bikes tuned....

I think your right. I few seasons back the warm weather went into mid December - heck I biked almost to Christmas that year. But we had a great spring season - lots of snow. I think this year might be shaping up to be similar. Seems like the winters are getting a later start and a stronger finish.

I've been hearing "warm+" until mid or even late December, but recently some are talking about a pattern change at Thanksgiving. Anyone have any analysis?

patterns last usually between 4-6 weeks...but things are never usual..

I have been following the forecast for the summit Co resorts for the past week. I think Co will be the place to be in the next few weeks. We are in the jet stream rockies dip, east warm/wet. It sucks for us but as the grand daughter is headed for a thanksgiving in CO - she will have great skiing. The wife likes the turkey by the fire at home otherwise I would lobby to join the kids. I'll get up early Thursday morning and brine the bird and make scratch sticky buns while Mom sleeps in, been doing this for the past 40+/- years.

Can somebody post links to the NAM and GFS forecasts?  I can't seem find them, and it seems like we have a shot at some cold air over the next 2 weeks.

Yea that's the one.  Buddy can you spare a link.

Same Map Time 2 runs later ...Anything after 120hrs is hooey...

 

Annnnnd... could I get the link.

I usually start here:
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/

Model Guidance
Area: NAMER
Type: GFS (or NAM-HIRES if the storm is less than 3 days out)
SFC-Layer params: 850_temp_mslp_precip
Loop All

At least that's where I usually go, or Preip_ptot to find total water amounts for the storm. I'm sure people who actually know what they're doing could help out more.
 

Thanks for the detailed lesson T. Appreciate it.  Looks like there are no URLs to save beyond the one you posted.  

For some reason the link I was using last season no longer includes the GFS.

So what are we thinking for T-day week. Is it gonna get colder or stay in this same pattern.

I use this link to get model forecasts. http://weather.unisys.com/. The 10 day forecast does not look promising although there has been a lot of variation in the last few runs.  Often the long range models have trouble forecasting pattern changes so perhaps that accounts for the variability, we can only hope-).

PeeTex wrote

The wife likes the turkey by the fire at home otherwise I would lobby to join the kids. I'll get up early Thursday morning and brine the bird and make scratch sticky buns while Mom sleeps in, been doing this for the past 40+/- years.

you are a good man.  

campgottagopee wrote

So what are we thinking for T-day week. Is it gonna get colder or stay in this same pattern.

warm till Christmas.  

ScottyJack wrote

campgottagopee wrote

So what are we thinking for T-day week. Is it gonna get colder or stay in this same pattern.

warm till Christmas.

It doesn't look promising..

ScottyJack wrote

campgottagopee wrote

So what are we thinking for T-day week. Is it gonna get colder or stay in this same pattern.

warm till Christmas.

damn

JasonWx wrote

ScottyJack wrote

campgottagopee wrote

So what are we thinking for T-day week. Is it gonna get colder or stay in this same pattern.

warm till Christmas.

It doesn't look promising..

double damn

It's looking like this will be a delayed season.

http://www.hudsonvalleyweather.com/hvw-2015-2016-winter-outlook/


https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=4Liya4air-Q

It's coming...