Winter 2015 - 16 Long Range Forecasts

sno
this guy is the colo weather guru

https://opensnow.com/dailysnow/steamboat

I'm following him and snowforecast very closely.  His weather predictions are on the Steamboat website.

Weather is looking bad for next week.  Hunter will be lucky if they can open even just the F-Lift with 6-pack downloading.  Windham does not have this lift access and will probably be closed.  Belleayre has some higher elevation terrain with lift access, so they may be able to pull off a WROD.

Gore and Whiteface will likely not be able to open much more, if anything compared to what they have now.

Killington may be able to pull it together and open Ramshead and/or Snowshed.  They really need extra base areas to open soon.

So if these conditions persist Sno what is acceptable terrain availability for the Christmas holiday week?

The point I'm making is....sometimes there is no control on that front and Ma Nature has the last say.

The 12/26 deadline still stands.  Set it any later and you'll slack off in a good year.  The deadline applies in all years, but there'd just be many places that miss it this year.

Think of it this way, if you guarantee all lifts open by 12/26 to your passholders, or they get $100 back, not that anyone does that.  If you set the deadline at 1/15 instead, you should always be able to make it, but would there be any motivation to open stuff early in a good year.  You'd be doing customers a disservice by setting the bar low like that.

Darrin's update:  don't give up the ship just yet.

Winter in trouble, already? Update 11/30/15

Think I'll go with the hope generated by Christine's comment: "I well remember the last time we had such a long, warm fall. 1966. It started snowing just before Christmas. It snowed for months."

All I know is if I don't burn 85% of my firewood, I'm gonna be pissed! And if my JD 4x4 tractor isn't put into service clearing snow from my driveway, that's gonna be a sad situation..

You need to get realistic.  Your deadlines don't make any sense.

 In reality IMO the industry does itself a disservice by rushing to open.  All the snow blown at Wildcat and other resorts that melted is snow that can't be blown later due to budgetary issues.  If resorts waited they could blow later into the season which would extend spring skiing.  Instead of the rush to be first be the counter trend marketer that advertises being the last to keep blowing and does more late season biz.

Late season snow making is a waste of money. The mountain closes every year with snow left over. Blowing early brings skiers out. Everyone is itching to do.. Not so much in April.

Um actually my deadlines make plenty of sense.  Christmas is one of the busiest weeks of the year, so if you want to provide a decent experience, you'd better be damn sure that all your lifts are running.  Considering that by this time, most ski areas have been open for at least a month, there really isn't an excuse to not open all your lifts.  If you can't do it, better invest heavily the following summer in snowmaking capacity.

It's asinine to make snow in October if you aren't Killington or Sunday River.  However, there is a huge difference between that, and going all out in December to provide the best possible experience for the very busy Christmas holiday week.  Mount Snow and Stratton both met the 12/26 deadline last year, and I'm sure they delivered a far better experience than Gore did with all of Burnt Ridge and the Ski Bowl closed, and likely many more trails elsewhere.  Hunter meets the deadline just about every year, and I always feel good about skiing there during Christmas week.

Extending spring skiing just means even more lost money if you aren't Killington.  If ski areas waited till January to really try and open up terrain, they'd just end up closing with full wall to wall coverage and letting that melt at the end of the season.  You can't force people to change what they do.  At some point late into the season, ski areas will hit a date where it makes no longer makes financial sense to stay open, so they close, regardless of snow.  Windham closes the first Sunday of April every year, sometimes the last Sunday in March regardless of snow coverage.  They may as well try and open as early as possible since they only need enough snow to last till the first Sunday in April.  Most other ski areas operate similarly.

The best skiing by far is in the spring.  Skiers need to change skiing later into the year and stop these unrealistic demands to be 100% open only one month into a season.

Well changing everyone's thinking is out of the question.  Are you going to start a petition like Glade Runner did for no ski areas to open until January and always stay open until May?

Christmas week is a huge business opportunity in the ski industry.  That's why mountains try to get fully open by then, or at least some of them do.  You'd be a real idiot not to take advantage of it.

I agree with most of that.  All of the revenue comes from Christmas, Prez and MLK, at least in the east.

Thanksgiving is another story.  I'd bet at least half are losers.

I talked to Mike at Gore this weekend. He said they basically went for it because of snoloco's law.

The pressure was just too much.

I think Coach is basically saying...... Life just isn't the bowl of biscuits we want it to be every day kid. I'm just practicing and enjoying my new vid uploading skills. :) I sing this to my daughter a lot. She hates it but it gets the message across.

Harvey wrote

I agree with most of that.  All of the revenue comes from Christmas, Prez and MLK, at least in the east.

Thanksgiving is another story.  I'd bet at least half are losers.

I talked to Mike at Gore this weekend. He said they basically went for it because of snoloco's law.

The pressure was just too much.

Thanksgiving is typically a loser in a bad year, like this one, but there is always pressure from the places where it is profitable for everyone to try to open.  If all of the revenue comes from Christmas, MLK, and Prez, then all the lifts should open by 12/26 by any means possible.  Since 1/3rd of your season's revenue comes from that, you need to put forward the best skiing experience possible.

Every mountain I know does go all out for Christmas.  That is, if you define all out as maxing out the pumping of water and air and making as much snow as possible whenever temps allow.

Your beef is not with the use of capacity, you want more total capacity.

Who doesn't want a fat checking account and a bigger wee wee? We all make do with what we got.

You said you were a New Yorker, if you want the Ski Bowl open by 12/26 write to your congressman.

Not a single night of snowmaking temps in Hunter's forecast for the next two weeks.  I don't think they're opening this weekend, although they may be able to do 6-pack downloading.  They may need to change their opening plans completely to open all the terrain they can off the F-Lift and West Side before expanding to the bottom.

Mountain Creek won't be open till at least Mid January at this rate which is worse than 06-07 when they opened in December and were forced to close for much of January.  They're looking at a half length season.

Yes things look bleak, but patience grasshopper...these thing tend to work out..

I don't think I'm going to be able to do any non WROD skiing until I get out west.  Steamboat has 68.5 inches so far and there is more to come next week.  I was told by a local on epicski that they should have the entire mountain open with a couple more storms.

Are you going to protest

raisingarizona wrote

I think Coach is basically saying......

Life just isn't the bowl of biscuits we want it to be every day kid.

I prefer my biscuits with gravy!