Winter 2015 - 16 Long Range Forecasts

ScottyJack wrote

raisingarizona wrote

I think Coach is basically saying......

Life just isn't the bowl of biscuits we want it to be every day kid.

I prefer my biscuits with gravy!  

Mmmm, gravy.

http://www.upstatesnow.com/weather/news-story/final-call-winter-forecast-2015-16/

I'll take 06-07 if that's what we get.

06-07 was the absolute worst season imaginable for the ski areas in my region, at least in recent years.  11-12 comes close to it's level of crappyness, but Mountain Creek did manage to open for the majority of the time they usually are.  06-07 was basically a half-season since Mountain Creek and Mount Peter were closed for most of January.

If all else fails:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052970204468004577167042382438200

I think it is going to play out like this..From now to mid month we will have marginal at best snowmaking at night. Any operator with a ounce of brains wouldn't turn on their guns.  We will have a big rain event somewhere toward mid month followed by, what looks like a pattern change.
This is based on the long range..So take it with a grain of salt..
Happy Biking...

Starting to feel a bit more confident about a colder pattern taking hold. This will happen around the 19th ish...

In the mean time the west is looking sweet...

peace and love

Good news!

Gun POW

Speaking of long range forecasting, fill up the coffee up and have a little chortle reading this:

The old farmers almanac predicts we're all fucked this winter

It is kinda weird. In the early 2000's, we used to travel to western PA every Thanksgiving to visit family. When we returned to Queensbury NY it was often very cold even to the point of zero degree weather.

I used to have a steady cover of snow on my yard from early December-ish till end of March every year. Last 8 or so years this no longer happens. I have prolonged periods of bare grass now.

When I moved here in 2001, we had prolonged sub zero weather every year. 20-30 below at night maybe - 10  or zero for a high. It sucked! I was thinking about moving away but since then as you know, it no longer happens.

Funny thing about long bouts of sub-zero weather.... When it finally warms up to zero, you can go out with a lighter jacket on and feel " Hey, it's kinda warm. ".

This is my least favorite time of the year with no snow and short and miserable grey days, but it will get better at some point and I hope we all get to ski it!

Snowballs wrote

It is kinda weird. In the early 2000's, we used to travel to western PA every Thanksgiving to visit family. When we returned to Queensbury NY it was often very cold even to the point of zero degree weather.

I used to have a steady cover of snow on my yard from early December-ish till end of March every year. Last 8 or so years this no longer happens. I have prolonged periods of bare grass now.

When I moved here in 2001, we had prolonged sub zero weather every year. 20-30 below at night maybe - 10  or zero for a high. It sucked! I was thinking about moving away but since then as you know, it no longer happens.

Funny thing about long bouts of sub-zero weather.... When it finally warms up to zero, you can go out with a lighter jacket on and feel " Hey, it's kinda warm. ".

I think you have selective memory. You may not recall but the winter of 2002/3 or there abouts was a terrible start. A season or two after I recall a buddy saying he went to Gore after Thanksgiving and had to jump or ski over grass on the only run open. I think if you look back, it has been hit and miss for early season. Last year was great, this year sucks, next year - who knows.

PeeTex wrote

Snowballs wrote

It is kinda weird. In the early 2000's, we used to travel to western PA every Thanksgiving to visit family. When we returned to Queensbury NY it was often very cold even to the point of zero degree weather.

I used to have a steady cover of snow on my yard from early December-ish till end of March every year. Last 8 or so years this no longer happens. I have prolonged periods of bare grass now.

When I moved here in 2001, we had prolonged sub zero weather every year. 20-30 below at night maybe - 10  or zero for a high. It sucked! I was thinking about moving away but since then as you know, it no longer happens.

Funny thing about long bouts of sub-zero weather.... When it finally warms up to zero, you can go out with a lighter jacket on and feel " Hey, it's kinda warm. ".

I think you have selective memory. You may not recall but the winter of 2002/3 or there abouts was a terrible start. A season or two after I recall a buddy saying he went to Gore after Thanksgiving and had to jump or ski over grass on the only run open. I think if you look back, it has been hit and miss for early season. Last year was great, this year sucks, next year - who knows.

Last season I skied the earliest I ever did, Nov.22. Skied WF and it was in incredible shape. Was hoping for a repeat this season, and no dice as we all know. The only happy one in my family is my 26 yo son, who is digging the fact I'm still around to wire his house. Was hoping to be a ghost in my area by now, miles away making turns, but can't sell myself the idea to head north given the limited terrain. My next scheduled shot at heading to LP is 20 December. With today the 5th, there's minimal time for things to turn around. I'm not really into driving 640 miles rt to drink beer, though the thought has crossed my mind. Oh well, I'll let the chips fall as they may and keep thinking snow!

Forecast still looks on track for a cool down around the 19/20th..Will it be enough to salvage the holiday week? too early to tell..

one disturbing sign is the the lack of ridging in the north atlantic. with out the ridge we will not be able to sustain a extend period of cold weather..

We wish

Progression...
We are in for a pretty sharp warm up this weekend , followed by a moderate rain event Monday and Tuesday.
We are still on track for a cool down around the 18th. Followed by another warm up around the 20th or so.
This is going to be the pattern until the end of the month. The Jet is just pounding the west coast and with out a North Atlantic ridge we are toast.

That said , I booked a trip to Florida over the holidays. I'm sure the weather will change when I'm away..

Peace and Love

JasonWx wrote

That said , I booked a trip to Florida over the holidays. I'm sure the weather will change when I'm away..

You should have come out to the PNW....It's looking good in North Central WA for a white Christmas.

I think I picked a good time of year to remodel my kitchen.

3rd week in Jan will for sure will be one of the snowiest ever --- I too am going to Florida

nepa wrote

JasonWx wrote

That said , I booked a trip to Florida over the holidays. I'm sure the weather will change when I'm away..

You should have come out to the PNW....It's looking good in North Central WA for a white Christmas.

I wish...My wife has other ideas, like visiting her parents and other family members...I haven't been to FLA in 16yrs so I'm due...

Buffalo breaks a 116 year old record for no measurable snow

http://www.nwherald.com/2015/12/04/116-year-old-record-falls-in-buffalo-in-absence-of-1st-snow/atnzbk7/