Winter Weather 2015-2016

frk wrote

Let's sacrifice Trump. And for good measure, let's throw in Cruz.

I laughed. But maybe it could work!

I always thought a living sacrifice was best, but I've seen the kids burn plastic stuff now so maybe Cruz would work

Looking more and more like we will have a active February..We have to get through this week, the off to the races..

peace and love

Be sooo cool if Jason would start the next storm spec thread!

Too early for that just yet.. We need to get through this week's mess first..

if you throw in Bernie you got a deal you can roast both Trump and Cruz.  The world would be a better place without all three.  With out all their hot air we might get some snow.

http://www.ilsnow.com/2016/02/01/custers-last-stand/

I don't think it looks as bleak..
Next week will be active and cold.. How much snow falls and who gets it , any ones guess at this point..

Hey Jason,
What about a  Feb 8-9 speculation?  the GFS is trying to give us something but the Euro is giving us enough cold air (Gore borderline, Whiteface snow?)  Still way too far out but something to hope for
No real polar air in the foreseeable future  unfortunately

GFS now wants to keep a monster off shore for the 8th...We are basically cold for ever..Then maybe some arctic air..

NWS ALY Long Term Discussion

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ACTIVE WEATHER.  IN A SEASON WHEN TRADITIONAL
WINTER WEATHER EVENTS HAVE BEEN RATHER FEW AND FAR BETWEEN...PEOPLE
WHO ARE FOND OF SNOW MAY FIND THIS UPCOMING STRETCH OF WEATHER TO BE
OF SOME INTEREST.

THE WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK GETS A BIT MORE COMPLICATED...AND
MODEL/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN LITTLE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.

HOWEVER...MOST MODELS LOOK TO SHOW A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...WHILE ANOTHER
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT
LAKES WITH A DEEPENING AND HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THIS FIRST SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
MAY WIND UP MISSING OUR AREA TO THE EAST FOR MONDAY...PERHAPS
BRUSHING PARTS OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW BEFORE
HEADING OUT TO SEA. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 20S TO MID 30S WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMES EASTWARD FOR MON NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...IT WILL START TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT.  THIS COULD
ALLOW YET ANOTHER COASTAL LOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND MOVE NORTHEAST...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO CLOSE OFF
AND MOVE TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS STILL QUITE
UNCLEAR ON THE SFC TRACK OF THIS ADDITIONAL COASTAL WAVE...AND IF IT
WILL COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING SNOW TO OUR AREA. WHILE THE LATEST
12Z RUNS OF THE GFS/ECWMF SUGGEST THIS STORM MAY ALSO BE TOO FAR
EAST TO BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOW TO OUR AREA...THE 12Z GEFS HAVE A
LARGE NUMBER OF ENSEMBLE MEMBER BRINGING THE STORM TOWARDS OUR AREA.
EVEN IF THE SFC WAVES MISSES OUR REGION...A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL.

http://weather.unisys.com/ecmwf/ecmwf.php?inv=0&plot=6d®ion=a
This is the latest Euro which gives us some hope
we need to suck that second low closer and get rid of that high over hinterlandia...or at least weaken it

Report from one of my co-workers who lives outside of the creak was it was raining harder up there today then it was in Saratoga and Albany.  Lets hope that doesn't happen again.  

I watched the radar much of the day and the central adk got hit pretty hard.

Colder air on the way.

Spring Peepers chirping away in the pond on February 4.  What a fucking "winter" so far.....

Here's my take...
We will have a seasonable weekend..Followed by a large cut off upper low early next week. This will bring cold air and a extended period of light to some times moderate snow..This should last for a week or so...

The models then hint at a return to above avg temps and maybe the wet stuff.. Not encouraging , Hopefully it will change..It has in the past..

peace and love

NWS ALY Long Term Discussion

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH MEAN UPPER TROUGHING OVER
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.  PIECES OF STRONG UPPER ENERGY ARE EXPECTED
TO TRACK THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGHING...WITH UNCERTAINTIES AS TO THE
TRACK OF POTENTIAL STORMINESS. EVEN IF THE STRONGEST UPPER ENERGY
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM TRACK FARTHER EAST...OTHER TRAILING
UPPER ENERGY IMPULSES COMBINED WITH LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE AND LAKE
EFFECT SNOW PROCESSES SHOULD RESULT IN CHANCES FOR SNOW MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OVER MOST IF NOT ALL THE REGION. TOUGH TO BE
SPECIFIC ABOUT WHAT AREAS MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW IF ANY AND NOT QUITE ABLE TO NARROW THE TIME WINDOW OF THE BEST
CHANCES EITHER. SO...WILL KEEP WATCHING AND WE WILL GRADUALLY KNOW
AS THE STORM BEGINS TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM OVER THE WEEKEND.

Just watchin' this thing next Wednesday-ish.  Simultaneously planning a day of hooky and bracing myself for the inevitable disappointment.  Such is the 15/16 season.  







(So far)

FWIW......Mountain-Forecast for Whiteface is calling for a couple of inches Saturday night, with 6-12 Monday night through Tuesday.  5-9 for Gore.

Here kitty kitty...