Winter Weather 2015-2016

well aware of powderfreaks  work..he's one of the good guys

http://madriverglenweather.blogspot.com

Looks like next week has the potential to make or break the season. A dense, heavy snowstorm next week could set us up with a nice base for some storms in March.

this is true.  i think next week's system is the hail mary pass...the problem is ,the receiver has hands of stone..

Yea here is that link:

http://madriverglenweather.blogspot.com/2016/02/some-decent-snow-over-next-3-days-storm.html

In the east, without some risk of disaster, there is no glory.

Now the good and the bad..
I am growing more confident that there will be a real nice event for VT/NH next Tues. Still along way to go, still time for the Dacks to be invited to the party..

Now the bad..After said storm departs..It looks like it's gonna get warm...real warm

 

not to say we won't have something in march, but.....

peace and love..

at least there's MTB ing

Yea.

Been watching this for several days:



and this:



Was talking to Zelda last night, just don't think this weekend temps would be fun for the girls.  She's like... what about next weekend? She loves spring skiing so maybe...

Jason... if you want a signature LMK...  could save you some time: "peace and love"

Open snow has a new team doing its New England / ADK forecasts - its the Metrology prof and grad students at Plymouth State Univ.  You weather guys may want to check them out.

Calling for Saturday temps at WF to be high of -12 and low of -25.  Yikes!

next week calling for a snow event from Monday night thru Thursday morning with 10-21" being the range predicted for WF with a little higher for Gore.  Bring it on.

Brian Clark was a much better forecaster then theses kids..He had a real feel for the idiosyncrasies  of the mountains..

In my emails to Brian , I got the feeling Joel didn't like the fact that he didn't update daily..There was nothing to update about..

JasonWx wrote

Brain Clark

I heard that guy was smart

Yikes
 

Harvey, not sure doom, gloom and spring skiing can be gleaned from those maps with all the orange on them, can it?  Those maps don't indicate specific temps, rather the probability that temps will be "above normal".  Sure, temps next week might be in the low 30's, which may be "above normal", but it's not season ending, no?

Jason, are 14 to 21 day temp firecasts more accurate than long range storm forecasts, which are very unreliable?

For temps I look at the 850mb chart...

This isn't a season ender..but it will be a significant warm up..



very strong SW flow and cut off  SE ridge...at 850....only saving grace is that it is progressive..

Not predicting doom and gloom or anything specific really.  Just saying that bringing my girls to the mountains seems more prudent next weekend vs this.  That seems fairly certain.

To speculate though it does seem like daytime highs are likely to be above freezing after next week's storm. I know that those maps are odds of above or below not temps. But if the average high for the Adks is in the upper 20s at this time of year then a 70% chance of above average seems like it's probably going to go above 32.  As mostly a weekend warrior a forecast above freezing, especially when with the family is a good thing, especially of the sun is shining.

Would like to hear what Jason sees for temps in 10 days.  Personally I think that temp forecasts are more reliable farther out than precip.

I'd also heard that the cold will return.

EDIT: Jason ... what does "progressive" mean?

Harvey, sorry if I misread there.  In a couple of posts there Jason was warming up the fat lady and you were passing on the cold this weekend to enjoy spring skiing the next.  Yes, a nice day in the mid 30s beats a windchill of -50, but we aren't at spring skiing yet.

We'll be up in Placid this weekend, but I suspect I will be the only one skiing on Saturday.  We'll be up with friends so I'm sure the kids will have more fun in town and in the pool than braving -10 (before the windchill) on the hill.

No problem man. Being a flatlander with a demanding job REQUIRES some medium and long term weather speculation IMO.

Also did not say I was passing up this weekend, just that my wife doesn't want to subject Neve to -5 highs on Saturday. (She's had strep 2x this winter so far and it she has a condition that makes strep really bad for us).

I'm optimistic I can ski, but have to work out some kind of Valentine's Day strategy.  :)

Harvey wrote

I'm optimistic I can ski, but have to work out some kind of Valentine's Day strategy.  :)

ALWAYS the issue this weekend!!!  The temps this weekend making things easier vs. a big dump.  I'm going with a compromise and skiing Belleayre in comfy temps while she's at work Friday!

I'm scared.

I don't believe you BG.

Every now and then NY wins.  Maybe this is one of those times?

well the new guys are not updating daily either

What's the over under on the low for Saranac Lake Sunday morning -20?