Coronavirus

To be clear, I wouldn’t be surprised if we are at that number already. Our lack of testing leaves us in the dark so it’s really hard to know. Based on the annnouncements last week testing is supposed to ramp up this week. If that actually happens we will start to catch up.

New York has ramped up testing in its own and you can see that in the numbers - but we need more everywhere

NYC schools finally closed.

Fed cut rates to zero. Which will do nothing to stop this.

We’re on the verge of complete lockdown - which could be the quickest way to stop this. Rip the band aid off.

If you live in New York and have questions regarding coronavirus, please call the Department of Health Hotline: 1-888-364-3065.

We need a Willy predicts thread.

The Aspen Times is reporting two of the Australians ordered to say in isolation in Aspen after testing positive for COVID-19 may have defied a public health order and left their hotel room Friday to ski in Snowmass Village.

campgottagopee wrote

We need a Willy predicts thread.

Glad you're finally on board!

On a different note - any thoughts on how a person can help in their community? A natural disaster like a flood, you can walk down the street and help your neighbors clean up. This feels a little helpless. Any resources out there for how help can be provided?

I work in outside B to B sales. My company has decided to try and come up with a national policy for Coronavirus, rather then address what’s happening in Metro NY. So I just left a VM with HR. If she’s able to get through all of her calls today (there are around 300 sales reps in MNY) she’s going to tell me that I have to use a paid personal day in order to work from home, which is the company’s policy on snow days (extremely unsatisfactory even for snow days for that matter). I think they’re afraid that if they let the sales reps work from home they’re going to have to deal from some kind of the revolt from the delivery drivers.

billyymc wrote

 

On a different note - any thoughts on how a person can help in their community? A natural disaster like a flood, you can walk down the street and help your neighbors clean up. This feels a little helpless. Any resources out there for how help can be provided?

IMO all we can do is take care of ourselves and those around us. At work we clean 4 times per day. I have elderly neighbors who I spoke with yesterday. I told them that I would be glad to go to the store for them for whatever it is they need. They declined my offer but who knows, maybe a week from now they'll take me up on that. As we know it's the elderly and those with underlying issues who are most vulnerable.

NYC has announced the 3rd death.  All elderly.  That generally means COVID-19 had been around the patient for 2-4 weeks outside the hospital.  The first death was of a woman who was hospitalized in Brooklyn on March 3.  There is a NYC firefighter who tested positive and is the first evidence of community spread.  There are almost 150 cases hospitalized.  Now I understand the timing of the decision to lock down the city.

https://newyork.cbslocal.com/2020/03/15/coronavirus-update-death-nyc/

Human vaccine trials starting today in Seattle https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51906604

billyymc wrote

On a different note - any thoughts on how a person can help in their community? A natural disaster like a flood, you can walk down the street and help your neighbors clean up. This feels a little helpless. Any resources out there for how help can be provided?

When you go shopping, don't overbuy anything.  Get what you need but don't stock up for a month.

If you know someone who lives alone, call and see if they need anything bought and dropped off.  Or just to chat.  Especially if they aren't that Internet-savvy.  Must still be a few folks without a smart phone.

Keep spreading the word about Flatten The Curve and what "social distancing" really means and can accomplish.  Especially to young adults who don't really get it yet.  One young man posted elsewhere that he fully expected K-ton to re-open soon.  Others think being out of school is a great time to go party with their friends.

The stuff below isn't for everyone.  Much better for a math geek or at least someone not scared of math.  But pass them on to people who might get a lot out of them.  The first is a mathematical simulation that demonstrates the different results between free-for-all and social distancing.  The second is visual math explaining why stopping exponential growth is important and possible with social distancing.  Got that one from a senior on another regional ski forum (from the east, moved out west after retirement).

March 14, 2020, Washington Post
Why outbreaks like coronavirus spread exponentially, and how to “flatten the curve”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator

March 8, 2020,
https://youtu.be/Kas0tIxDvrg

https://twitter.com/JoshuaPotash/status/1239255917943820289?s=09

Revy got a ton of shit on Facebook and decided to close:

https://www.facebook.com/RevelstokeMTN/

Mikaela:

https://www.facebook.com/MikaelaShiffrin/videos/1794230454049874/

marznc wrote

Keep spreading the word about Flatten The Curve and what "social distancing" really means and can accomplish.  Especially to young adults who don't really get it yet.  One young man posted elsewhere that he fully expected K-ton to re-open soon.  Others think being out of school is a great time to go party with their friends.

I don't know if this issue is more prevalent with young people or not but I saw this today on campus. Our University went online only and requested students not to return after spring break. But some did. I witnessed over a dozen instances of college aged people walking side by side within a foot of each other, interacting with each other physically, etc. I fear many will find partying a way to fill the void of not having in person classes and other things to do (all campus activities have been cancelled, gym is closed, etc.).

riverc0il wrote

I don't know if this issue is more prevalent with young people or not but I saw this today on campus. Our University went online only and requested students not to return after spring break. But some did. I witnessed over a dozen instances of college aged people walking side by side within a foot of each other, interacting with each other physically, etc. I fear many will find partying a way to fill the void of not having in person classes and other things to do (all campus activities have been cancelled, gym is closed, etc.).

Oddly enough, my reaction is that if they are on campus it's somehow better than if they were at home.  Less likely to have contact with older folks or those with medical issues who are at higher risk.  Of course the real problem is that there hasn't been enough testing so hard to know who is already infected.  The goal is to slow down the infection rate.  There is no way the number of cases (detected and undetected) is going to stop growing, but hopefully can get out of the exponential growth phase in weeks, not months.

It's not just the younger folks.  Heard a story of a 80-something man who told his adult children that he was being very careful.  Only planning to go to church and bridge club.  ???!!!  Guess he didn't know that the 80yo woman who died last week in Colorado was feeling well enough to play at a bridge tournament a couple weeks earlier.  Two other club members are ill already, one hospitalized.

A few links for those interested.  The first one demonstrates the difference between free-for-all and social distancing with a visual math simulation.  Can re-run as often as you like.

March 14, 2020, Washington Post
Why outbreaks like coronavirus spread exponentially, and how to “flatten the curve”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator

March 8, 2020, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19)
https://youtu.be/Kas0tIxDvrg
A visual math explanation of exponential growth, with formulas

March 13, 2020, USA Today
What does the coronavirus do to your body? Everything to know about the infection process
https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/2020/03/13/what-coronavirus-does-body-covid-19-infection-process-symptoms/5009057002/
A visual guide of coronavirus infection, symptoms of COVID-19 and the effects of the virus inside the body, in graphics

marznc wrote

Oddly enough, my reaction is that if they are on campus it's somehow better than if they were at home.

Nothing odd about that thought.  Clinton County just confirmed its first case yesterday.  Had my son stayed at Plattsburgh he’d likely be safer from COVID-19 than he is here at home in Dutchess County, which had 5 cases two days ago.  That said, students staying on campus and continuing social life as normal is just stupid.

We’ll have to head up to Plattsburgh this weekend to get all my son’s stuff out of his dorm room.  We had been considering having him go back up there (More isolated than here?  Keep to his study routines?  Access to school resources as needed?) but we’re just going to get his stuff and keep him home.  At least we’ll get a refund on his room and board!

Mikeala has something she shares on this topic.
Gotta love her.
https://theknow.denverpost.com/2020/03/16/mikaela-shiffrin-coronavirus/235534/

Harv, missed you already posted this. Been so busy doing nothing it's hard to keep up.

Has anyone told the Amish?