ORDA seems to be still making snow?

Harvey wrote

Did Missouri have a bad year?  I haven't been following it.

Waiting on two definitions now:

"decent" as in decent ski area
"core" as in core

BTW to my knowledge at this time no one has made snow in March.

I believe so.  But their normal years are similar to our bad years.  If a company can make money in Missouri and expand to own 14 ski areas, then they've gotta be able to withstand a bad season.

Sno ski areas don't make money in summer.  With some new activities they don't just sit idle losing huge amounts.  Summer is never going to be profitable when you have tens of millions of dollars of capital equipment sitting in the sun rusting.

Also ski areas are really just tubing facilities in the mid west.  That is where they truely make money.

Ethan
Omegang is the necture of the gods.  Thier success has nothing to do with Cooperstown and everything to do with amazing beer.  One day you will understand when you graduate from quantity to quality.

Then I'm completely dumbfounded as to why any ski areas even exist if all they ever do is lose money.

Coach Z wrote

Sno ski areas don't make money in summer.  With some new activities they don't just sit idle losing huge amounts.  Summer is never going to be profitable when you have tens of millions of dollars of capital equipment sitting in the sun rusting.

Also ski areas are really just tubing facilities in the mid west.  That is where they truely make money.

Ethan
Omegang is the necture of the gods.  Thier success has nothing to do with Cooperstown and everything to do with amazing beer.  One day you will understand when you graduate from quantity to quality.

Some can, it depends on a lot of different variables I imagine. I think Snowbowl here in Flagstaff could kill it with summer activities mostly because of the location. The mountain is like an alpine island in the middle of the desert with 4 major population centers within a 4 hour drive, Phoenix is less than 2 hours away. Those cities are hot and people want to escape that heat in the summer.

Whistler definitely kills it, but ya, it's Whistler. Vail is about to go forward with a huge summer rec improvement proposal.

http://www.rrcassociates.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/Summer-Operations-2014-Summer-2014.compressed.pdf

Ok, Great! So now all I have to do is make better beer than Omegang, and now I've got it easy!

Actually, have you ever been to Omegang? That would be a perfect place for a small ski area, or at least a tubing hill. I think there's like 700 vert behind that place, and the base area is already open. All they need to do is get like a yurt of something for people to hang out. And then they can go drink till their heart's content.  Believe me, I've got a million different ideas. In fact, I have discussed possibilities with the owner about a tubing hill, but nothing ever came of it. I even came up with a quote for the project. I he has hops growing there now.

BTW, everyone should really come to the Snowmegang Invitational Beer festival. Literally like the biggest beer fest in NY
Here's what's going on:   http://www.ommegang.com/blog/category/events/

Friends, we are once again partnering with American On Tap to bring our SNOMMEGANG INVITATIONAL BEER FESTIVAL back to Main Street in Oneonta, NY! Join us on Saturday, March 12 from 2-6 pm for beer tasting, live music, and more! A little cold weather (well, maybe. Who knows with this winter!) won’t keep us from taking over Main Street and enjoying beers from 30+ breweries from around the country.

Tickets are $50 in advance, $55 day-of, and $45 for students with valid student ID (must purchase student tickets at the event). To buy tickets and/or sign up to volunteer, visit the event website.

Additional information is below in the press release from AOT.

Hope to see you in March!
Cheers,
Allison

snoloco wrote

Then I'm completely dumbfounded as to why any ski areas even exist if all they ever do is lose money.

The unfortunate truth is ski areas mainly exist to drive real estate development which is where the money really is.  The same is true for golf courses for the most part.  The only worse business model is the airlines for long term profitability.  

As Orda is never going to have lodging or real estate as part of its revenue stream it never play o the same profitability field compared to private ski areas that rely on that revenue stream.  But part of Orda's mission statement is to promote tourism so it drives that in spades in LP which result in sales and lodging taxes.  North Elba rightly is required to pitch in to fund Orda.  I don't believe that the towns around Gore or Bellarye do so but they don't benefit as much I guess.

interesting niche idea a ski area with a brewery - I think its a winner Ethan - run with that

back in the late 80's Vernon Valley (now Sno's beloved MC) used to have its own brewery - Vernon Valley Brau served in these huge liter mugs.  Sounds like a dangerous combo for a NJ ski area and it was.

Ethan Snow wrote

Ok, Great! So now all I have to do is make better beer than Omegang, and now I've got it easy!

Actually, have you ever been to Omegang? That would be a perfect place for a small ski area, or at least a tubing hill. I think there's like 700 vert behind that place, and the base area is already open. All they need to do is get like a yurt of something for people to hang out. And then they can go drink till their heart's content.  Believe me, I've got a million different ideas. In fact, I have discussed possibilities with the owner about a tubing hill, but nothing ever came of it. I even came up with a quote for the project. I he has hops growing there now.

BTW, everyone should really come to the Snowmegang Invitational Beer festival. Literally like the biggest beer fest in NY
Here's what's going on:   http://www.ommegang.com/blog/category/events/

Friends, we are once again partnering with American On Tap to bring our SNOMMEGANG INVITATIONAL BEER FESTIVAL back to Main Street in Oneonta, NY! Join us on Saturday, March 12 from 2-6 pm for beer tasting, live music, and more! A little cold weather (well, maybe. Who knows with this winter!) won’t keep us from taking over Main Street and enjoying beers from 30+ breweries from around the country.

Tickets are $50 in advance, $55 day-of, and $45 for students with valid student ID (must purchase student tickets at the event). To buy tickets and/or sign up to volunteer, visit the event website.

Additional information is below in the press release from AOT.

Hope to see you in March!
Cheers,
Allison

That's cool. Superb road biking around that brewery. Gotta get up there for some concerts. Cooperstown area is beautiful.

Coach Z wrote

The unfortunate truth is ski areas mainly exist to drive real estate development which is where the money really is.

Which is what destroyed Jay Peak according to your report last year.  Not a ski area, a lodging company that has some skiing.  

Belleayre has been significantly behind their main peers in the region this year (Hunter, Windham and I even include Elk as it's the same distance for many from NJ; Plattekill gets a pass).  This is no surprise if you've been following their snow making over the years.  The need to show some effort to pass holders.  How they're going to handle the proposed expansion when they have trouble covering the entire mountain even in a hypothetical cold but low snow year is beyond me.

I was sorta kidding with my March comment Benny. Looks like March is happening.  Txt from Gore says guns are being set up now.

Coach Z wrote

The unfortunate truth is ski areas mainly exist to drive real estate development which is where the money really is.  The same is true for golf courses for the most part.  The only worse business model is the airlines for long term profitability.  

As Orda is never going to have lodging or real estate as part of its revenue stream it never play o the same profitability field compared to private ski areas that rely on that revenue stream.  But part of Orda's mission statement is to promote tourism so it drives that in spades in LP which result in sales and lodging taxes.  North Elba rightly is required to pitch in to fund Orda.  I don't believe that the towns around Gore or Bellarye do so but they don't benefit as much I guess.

North Elba contributes to ORDA because they used operate the venues (bobsled, x country, ski jumping, ice skating/hockey) in North Elba (not Whiteface). When they deeded them to the NYS/ORDA, part of the deal was to contribute since North Elba benefits from these venues through tourism. The most recent addition in NE is the Conference Center at Lake Placid. The Towns around Gore (Johnsburg) and Belleayre (Shandaken) do not have anything to deed to ORDA and ORDA has no plans to build any new facilities in Johnsburg or Shandaken.. North Creek might have contributed some land for the Ski Bowl, but the Ski Bowl had not operated for many years.

In recent years, North Elba has tried to reduce the payment to ORDA.

The real estate model for ski areas isn't really sustainable for the long term.

I just wanted to throw that out there.

raisingarizona wrote

The real estate model for ski areas isn't really sustainable for the long term.

I just wanted to throw that out there.

It depends on what you mean by sustainable. Many of the units that surround Mt Snow/Stratton/Okemo are in use during a normal ski season every weekend, either by the owners or renters. This is a large, built in base of people that sustains a minimal level of sales. If it is a bad season like this year, you might not have as many rentals, but it is likely the owners might use the units more - they are paying for them.

A place like Gore without a large base of beds will be more affected during a bad season due to the lack of day trippers since they are a larger percentage of Gore's ticket sales (vs Mt Snow/Stratton/Okemo).

Maybe you are referring to real estate sales. In this case there might be a point where you cannot sell any more units due to over saturation or no land worth building.

It's the truth but it doesn't mean I have to like it.  

Jay has now over built the lodging base for what thier ski infrastructure can support.  They haven't added a single lift since they went crazy building hotel and condo units 6 years ago.  It was the only way to make money for them.  

I agree with X's analysis above

snoloco wrote

Coach Z wrote

The unfortunate truth is ski areas mainly exist to drive real estate development which is where the money really is.

Which is what destroyed Jay Peak according to your report last year.  Not a ski area, a lodging company that has some skiing.

SnoLoco, Ethan, and all you other armchair GMs should follow the 3 publicly-traded ski companies:  

- Vail (ticker MTN), link to most recent 10K (annual report for the period ended 7/31/2015)
- Intrawest (ticker SNOW), link to most recent 10K (annual report for the period ended 6/30/2015)
- Peak Resorts (ticker SKIS), link to most recent 10K (annual report for the period ended 4/30/2015)

Read through the Business Overview (Item 1) and the Management Discussion and Analysis (Item 7) in each report and you will get a very good overview of the Business of Skiing.

You should also take the time to read ORDA's filings, which are in a different format since ORDA is a NY state Authority, not a publicly-traded corporation:  ORDA 2014-15 annual report, ORDA 2014-15 financial statements.

The documents are designed for investors, but there is a wealth of information in them.  I'm happy to do my best to answer any questions.  I know some other forum members have a business background as well and could provide some insight.

I've never owned any of the 3 ski stocks (unless they're buried in some mutual fund in one of my retirement accounts), but I was thinking about buying Vail about a year and a half ago.  It was trading around $70.  I never pulled the trigger, because historically skiing has never been a great investment (financially speaking).  A month or two later the Park City acquisition was announced and the stock soared to about $80.  It's now trading around $128.  Hindsight is 20-20.

I watched with interest when Peak Resorts announced their IPO (initial public offering) about a year and a half ago.  If I recall correctly, the IPO came out at $9 per share.  Peak is now trading around $3.50.  It's trading range in the year and a half has never been above the $9 IPO price.  Like I said, skiing is generally a bad financial investment.

Regarding Peak, 3 out of 5 years in their 10K reflect losses (pre-tax).  The losses in those 3 years (2015, 2014 and 2012) total up to $13.35 million.  The two years that they made a profit (2011 and 2013) total up to $10.94 million.  Not a good track record.  One of the reasons for those losses is their debt load.  Their interest expense was very high, chewing up all the profits.  The public offering should have allowed Peak to restructure their debt load and substantially reduce the interest.  We should see that when they file their 10K for the year ended 4/30/2016, but the disaster of a winter that we've had here in the Northeast will probably kill any chance of turning a profit.  The upcoming 10K will also be the first period to include Hunter.

That's all for now... back to work.

Ya, I was thinking about a place like Telluride building the giant mansions around the ski runs, it might pay the bills for a little while but eventually you are going to run out of space and probably a market. On top of that it's not sustainable for the environment. I really dislike seeing valuable natural resources being used to produce 4000 square foot homes built for a small percentage of our population that are then put into actual use for a few weeks to a month or two out of every year. Being a mountain town person that really loves the mountains there is something about that that just doesn't sit well with me.

Watching the building going on during the mid to late 90's out here in these western mountain towns was nuts. It was good for a little while if you were a builder/developer/real estate agent but I had a hard time believing that there were enough people with enough money out there to justify all of the developments.

Smaller weekend rentals makes a lot more sense for certain areas. I guess a lot of this boils down to what your market is, is it the rich and famous, the weekend warrior, or the day tripper?

I am surprised that a place like Mountain Creek has slope side condos. Who owns those? Who would want to? The Catskills make sense but New Jersey.....weird.

I owned intrawest stock a long time ago. They were taken private, i believe, which forced a sale. One thing i liked is that they would not build until they had a certain percentage pre sold. ( dont know the percentage). But it helped prevent them with being stuck with a bunch of units no one wanted, so the debt remained in check. Also when they rent out condos, they got a 50% cut - not a bad deal. They would also make ski and stay packages more attractive if there were too many empty rooms. It seemed like they knew what they were doing.

Tom

Les Otten's American Skiing Company was publicly traded for a short time.  I believe they were de-listed for violating some law.  

Peak Resorts owns mostly day ski areas, not destination resorts.  These tend not to have slopeside lodging which means less revenue.  It'll be interesting to see what happens with Hunter on their annual report.  I'm guessing Hunter is one of the few ski areas to turn a profit, or at least take less of a loss.

The first individual public stock I ever bought was Otten's ticker SKI.  That was not a good investment and I took my haircut and moved on after a bad winter.

The 2nd stock I bought was a customer of mine back in the 90's that went up 1600% by the time I sold it when it eventually was purchased by a larger medical corporation.

I strongly believe in buying stocks in companies and industries that you know and understand.  That said I KNOW the ski business is a terrible investment.