Winter Weather 2019-2020

I'll take this chance...

NWS ALY

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Tranquil and mild weather early in the week will transition to an
active pattern with potential for multiple periods of precipitation
and all precipitation types on the table by the end of the week.

It looks like we will start off the week on a very mild note beneath
fast zonal flow aloft and 850 mb temps a couple degrees on either
side of 0C, 1-2 standard deviations above normal. Highs in the 50s
seem attainable in the valleys. For the rest of the period, a full-
latitude, positively tilted upper trough will shift from the western
to the central CONUS, with a portion of the energy potentially
ejecting toward the Northeast and becoming negatively tilted by the
end of the period. Downstream of the trough, a very strong jet/front
system will become situated across the Northeastern US. The lower
level front looks to strengthen across the forecast area Tuesday and
especially into Wednesday. Moisture will steadily increase poleward
ahead of the upper trough as well. Models not depicting too much
precipitation on Tuesday with another fairly mild day expected.

Wednesday onward looks to be the more active period as shortwave
energy in the fast southwesterly flow looks to induce more of a
cross-frontal component of the lower level flow. Precip type is
uncertain and will depend on the frontal position, with the
magnitude of the front suggesting low confidence on any particular
outcome at this time. However, there does exist potential for some
wintry mixed precipitation as early as Wednesday as northerly low
level flow may undercut the warmer temperatures aloft. There
continue to be signals for a potential coastal storm Thursday or
Friday ahead of ejecting negatively tilted wave. Ensemble spread is
high so confidence is low, and even if a coastal storm develops, the
proximity of anomalously warm 850 mb temps (and lack of anomalously
cold air) suggests potential for rain or mixed precip for a
significant portion of the forecast area. But accumulating snowfall
is a potential outcome as well if colder air can make a southerly
push before this wave approaches.

 the
proximity of anomalously warm 850 mb temps (and lack of anomalously
cold air) suggests potential for rain or mixed precip for a
significant portion of the forecast area

as of now this isn't pretty...warm air is usually king...

Yes, if anything I expect more rain and ice.

Harvey wrote

What you lookin at P?

And um, how's Utah?

Looking at iLsnow and Wunderground. Both seem to think we are getting snow from Wed through Sat at least when I last looked.

Utah was great. After the 1’ snow we just got an 1” each day. The snow on the ground dried out and although bumped - they were soft and fun. Short runs of untracked could be found for several days. Unfortunately they kept Devils Castle closed and heard it was opened today - too late for me. This trip was without my family, my grand daughter didn’t run me ragged so I returned not sore and beat as is the usual case.

some runs have a all rain event, some mostly snow...northern vt and LP look pretty safe..The Cats are in real trouble..

NWS ALY

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

The focus for the upcoming week will be on a full latitude trough
moving eastward across the CONUS, and downstream strong jet/front
system that could act as a focus for a couple rounds of
precipitation over the local area. All precip types are on the table
at various times given the strength of the baroclinic zone and
variability in model solutions.

The bottom line at this point is for an active period Tuesday night
into Thursday night with periods of wintry precipitation possible,
although the details are murky at this time.

I am hopeful for snow.

Trending colder?

still sticking with the northern areas doing ok...
still its in fantasy land being 144hrs out

06z has a lot of rain for the Cats..
i'm in VT this weekend..a Thurs event would be nice

Have faith grasshopper

The forecast seems to be coming together for anywhere from 12 to 15 on Thur & Fri for us guys & gals in the Daks.
Weather Underground, Skiology, NWS all agree.

This is coming around...

And the lord taketh away...

i wouldn't be surprise if it comes back...

Me either.

Pleeeeease!  Heading to LP this wknd with family and friends - I hope it is wintry for my kids first time there. (baby sled, no skiing for him ha)

JasonWx wrote

i wouldn't be surprise if it comes back...

`
I'm hoping so too

We head out on 2/11

the 12z run made a shit show of the whole event...mostly a rain event to the boarder , change to snow briefly when the low passes to the east...
still many days to go